It's Inevitable: Gay Marriage Will Be Legal in All 50 States Within 20 Years

Gay marriage will be legal in all 50 states within 20 years. The changing public attitudes towards same-sex relationships, especially among young people, mean that initiatives like the ones in Maine and California that recently banned gay marriage will start going in the other direction in the near future.

Examining poll numbers and demographic data provides enough evidence to state with near-certainty that gay marriage is inevitable in the United States.

This is not a discussion of whether same-sex marriage should be legal; plenty of writers have made those arguments already. This is an examination of the public's changing attitudes and the reality that gay marriage is inevitable in all 50 states.

Gay marriage is inevitable in all 50 states

All you have to do is look at the polls. In the early '90s, a majority of Americans opposed civil unions for same-sex couples and only 29 percent wanted to make gay marriage legal. Just 15 years later, large majorities support civil unions and 41 percent of Americans now support same-sex marriage. That figure is only going to keep climbing, especially as gays continue to marry in some states and opponents see that their own marriages haven't been "tainted" as a result.

Do gay marriage opponents think they can suddenly reverse years of momentum in the direction of more public tolerance and acceptance of same-sex relationships?

It's not hard to figure out the reasons behind the shift in attitude. As more gay Americans come out of the closet, both celebrities and regular folks at work, in neighborhoods and in families, people inevitably become more accepting of homosexuality in general.

And, let's be blunt: Older folks are the demographic least likely to support gay rights, and as they leave this world, their old-fashioned attitudes go with them. They're being replaced by a generation of younger, more progressive, more open-minded folks.

It's a simple case of math and demographics. In 20 years, today's open-minded teenagers will be middle-aged, today's middle-aged folks will be senior citizens, and today's seniors will no longer be with us. By then, it's inevitable - an overwhelming majority of Americans in most age groups will support gay marriage.

I have to believe that most same-sex marriage opponents are smart enough to know they're fighting a battle they cannot possibly win over the long term. Do they realize it's just a matter of time until attitudes shift enough to make their arguments fall on deaf ears? If so, and they're fighting anyway based on their beliefs and principles, then at least their dedication is worthy of respect.

If, however, they're oblivious to the reality that gay marriage is inevitable, then they're simply not paying attention, and they're going to be faced with a harsh reality in the not-too-distant future.

When will gay marriage be legal in the U.S.?

As of this writing, it's legal in five states: Iowa, Vermont, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, and Connecticut, with the District of Columbia ready to follow suit. That's 10% of the country already. All of the states that have legalized same-sex marriage have done so because of court order or an act of the legislature, not a vote of the people.

Same-sex marriage advocates have lost every time the issue has gone to the ballot, but they're not going away. Especially since the margins of defeat keep shrinking. In fact, in the wake of California's Prop 8 decision to rescind gay marriage in the state, same-sex advocates seem more determined than ever.

All it takes is one state to vote to legalize gay marriage. The narrow misses in Maine and California notwithstanding, once the citizens of that first state vote to legalize gay marriage, the ball will start rolling downhill and the momentum will be impossible to stop.

Nate Silver at fivethirtyeight.com did a detailed analysis of poll numbers and made predictions when gay marriage is likely to earn support in every state. His model predicts that by 2024, voters in all 50 states will support gay marriage. He was wrong about Maine (he predicted they'd vote to legalize gay marriage last year), but his model is very logical and generally seems to make sense.

It might not even take until 2024, because the courts could intervene. Courts across the country have been moving in the direction of legalizing gay marriage, and it's possible other state Supreme Courts could step in to make gay marriage legal, regardless of whether the state's voters approve of it.

Gay marriage is inevitable: Summary

Regardless of how one feels about the issue, the reality is that polls show public opinion continuing to move in the direction of support for gay marriage. But polls aren't even necessary - a common sense reflection on the nation's changing attitudes regarding homosexuality is all one needs to understand that gay marriage is inevitable.

Same-sex marriage has been legal for years now in various states, and society hasn't collapsed. Every day that goes by is another day closer to the reality of legal gay marriage in all 50 states.

Sources:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/04/gay-marriage-by-numbers.html
http://www.cnn.com/2009/US/05/04/samesex.marriage.poll/index.html
http://www.pollingreport.com/civil.htm