Joe Biden to Withdraw as Democratic Vice Presidential Candidate

On or about October 5, 2008, Joe Biden will announce his resignation from the race as Barack Obama's vice presidential running mate. He will cite health reasons and quietly withdraw. Hillary Clinton is poised to take his place as the Democratic vice presidential candidate. Or so this latest rumor goes.

Have you received this email forward yet? Or some version of it? Shortly after John McCain announced his choice for running mate, Sarah Palin, the emails rumor mill suggested that Biden would step down to allow a shake-up in the Democrat party that could equal the momentum that the Republicans gained when Palin's candidacy was announced.

Why Biden Stepping Down as VP Could be True
With moderate Democrats, particularly Hillary Clinton supporters like Lynn Forester de Rothschild, jumping ship to back the McCain/Palin ticket, perhaps it is not too strange to think Biden will step down. Obama took a great leap of faith in the Democrats by bypassing Hillary for Joe Biden. The Clintons have strong political ties and great resources in campaign funding. And when Hillary was passed over as VP candidate, it angered some very influential Clinton Democrats.

Former Democrat, Joe Lieberman, now an independent, also rocked the Democrat boat by speaking at the Republic National Convention. Most Americans still think of Lieberman as a staunch Democrat, due to his unsuccessful run with John Kerry in 2004. During his speech to the RNC, Lieberman was harshly critical of Obama's ability to run this country and of his lack of experience. Democrat political pundits were quick to cite Lieberman's new party affiliation but had to admit the speech did do some damage, especially considering the public who still thought of him as a Democrat.

At this point, Biden stepping aside in favor of a more controversial or well-known vice presidential candidate, could give Obama the momentum to see the campaign through to the vote. Due to Palin's popularity, the vote is quickly becoming all about the combined ticket, rather than just the likeability of presidential candidate. Biden may be a likeable person, but Palin outshines him and gets far more press coverage (both poor and good) than does Biden. In an election unlike any other, this could be yet another campaign shock-and-awe tactic.

Why Biden Stepping Down as VP Could Not be True
Email rumors like this have been seen in other elections. In 2004, there was an email circulating that Dick Cheney would step down citing health problems. As of 2008, he is still the sitting vice president.

According to Snopes.com, this rumor is undetermined but most likely not true. Some emails have cited that Biden will withdraw from the race after the vice presidential debates. This seems an unlikely tactic considering it is a great opportunity for the new candidate to showcase his or her talents. If he waited until too close to the election, it could backfire and force a landslide victory in favor of the McCain/Palin ticket.

That is precisely what happened in 1972 to then Democratic presidential candidate George McGovern. Eighteen days after the Democratic National Convention, he replaced his running mate, Thomas Eagleton, with Sargent Shriver. He lost the election by a landslide.

Whatever could be gained by a last minute switch-up also has to be viewed critically. If Obama should make the switch, he could be viewed as vacillating or weak and undecided. And if appearance is everything in an election, Obama could also alienate his voters since he could be viewed as petty. (Ie. Petty that he didn't think to choose a woman candidate, copying the McCain strategy, et cetera.) He could just as easily lose more votes than gain them.

Would Obama Choose Hillary Clinton to Replace Joe Biden?
While it may be possible that he could do this, it is probably unlikely. Hillary Clinton has said more against Obama than she has any of her Republican counterparts. She could bring in more votes and possibly bring back the moderates but that would take a lot of campaigning and time that is quickly running out. Personally, I believe she would do better to run in four years. By then, she will have had the time and voice to develop an even stronger campaign. She does not strike me as the type of candidate to sit by as vice president. I think she would get more exposure as a working senator.

Would Obama Choose Someone else to Replace Joe Biden?
Most likely, no. If you are going on name recognition or potential shake-up, the best bet is Hillary Clinton. So why would he swap Biden for another relatively unknown older senator? There is not a good strategy in that.

This has been a very interesting and history-making race. It has been unlike any other with surprises just around every corner. So while it may make sense to say Joe Biden will not step down as the Democrat vice presidential candidate, you just never know! It has been good TV so far. I guess we will all find out the end to this political drama soon.

Source:
http://www.snopes.com/politics/obama/vpchange.asp