Joe Manchin Hopes for a Senate Seat May Rest with Former Byrd Supporters

CHARLESTON, W.V. - A few months ago, John Raese was more than 16 points down in polls tracking his Senate race against Joe Manchin for the seat left vacant by the passing of Robert C. Byrd. Recent poll data released by the Rasmussen Group indicated that the led has now diminished to just a few slim points. At one point, the pollsters even went as far as declaring the race a toss-up.

John Raese has been campaigning hard in the state of West Virginia, utilizing his own West Virginia Radio Corporation radio stations to promote his message. His advertising campaign is making a clear attempt at connecting Joe Manchin to the policies Barrack Obama. The unpopularity of Barrack Obama in some circles of West Virginia have taken its toll the popular Governor of West Virginia. Manchin's approval rating as West Virginia's Governor is quite high, ranking above 60% according to a poll by Public Policy Polling. But as he makes a bid for the Senate seat left open by the passing of Robert C. Byrd, the latest poll numbers from the Rassmussen Group show a lead by Manchin over Raese by just a few slim points. However, the Rassmussen pollsters have stepped back from the "tossup" stance as Rassmussen Poll numbers have no begun to show more support toward the Democratic candidate.

Manchin May Step Away from Obama
The popularity rating of Barack Obama will have an direct effect on the outcome of the Senate race between Joe Manchin and John Raese. Obama not only lost the state of West Virginia during the presidential election, but he since supported policies that continue to sway West Virginian voters further away from giving Obama a decent approval rating. Since he took office, Obama has taken a stance against coal mining, the prime money maker for the state.

The Obama health care bill did nothing to sway West Virginia voters, a bill that was strongly advocated by Manchin. According to Rassmussen, 64percent of West Virginian favor a repeal of the health care bill, well above the national average. Raese's recent radio advertising campaign has focused in Manchin's support for the bill, by playing specific quotes from Manchin that are meant to place Manchin squarely in support of the bill.

There are some policy issues where Joe Manchin has been in disagreement with the President, and he may start to highlight these area as he presses further in his campaign. For example, in late 2009 Manchin spoke out against the President's push for policy that puts a cap and trade system in place against entities that emit greenhouse gases. Manchin is strongly opposed to the cap and trade system. Yet he does support the idea of using more solar and wind energy to produce electricity, as evidenced by Manchin's support of a renewable energy standard.

The waning popularity of Joe Manchin as the Governor of West Virginia may still be enough to get him elected in November, despite the lack of popular support of Barrack Obama. Undecideds and voters who traditionally supported Robert C. Byrd in past elections should naturally gravitate toward the name recognition that Manchin brings to the ballot box in November. Raese has run losing campaigns against Senator J. D. Rockefeller, and Byrd in the past and still may not have enough votes, despite the local unpopularity of Barack Obama.