Johan Santana - Master of the Change-Up

If you have been paying any attention to Major League Baseball over the last four years, then certainly the name of Johan Santana has graced your ears, not to mention put fear into the hears of many hitters. If you have been paying any attention to Major League Baseball over the last four years, then certainly the name of Johan Santana has graced your ears, not to mention put fear into the hears of many hitters. Since becoming a full-time starting pitcher in the second half of the 2003 season, this Venezuelan southpaw for the Minnesota Twins has won 2 Cy Young Awards while winning more games, striking out the more batters, and posting the best ERA of any pitcher in baseball. What makes him so devastating you may ask? His signature pitch is the change-up, and Santana throws one of the best.

However, it could be argued that this past season of 2007, when Santana allowed more home runs than any other American League pitcher (33), hitters were finally beginning to successfully adjust to the pitch which Johan has come to rely heavily. Some would argue he has perhaps "fallen in love" with that pitch, and the batter merely needs to wait for it and he has a chance of making good contact. The difficulty in recognizing a good change-up is a deceptive delivery in which the pitcher effectively hides the ball until just before his release. It initially looks like a fastball coming in and may appear to have late downward movement just before it reaches the plate. The purpose of the pitch is getting the hitter to swing a split-second too early and as a result making less than solid contact which often translates into a swing and a miss or a weak ground ball to the shortstop. Santana has been masterful in coaxing a multitude of swinging and missing as evidenced by the sheer number of strikeouts he has compiled, leading the league virtually every season. Unfortunately, despite striking out over 200 hitters yet again, he also allowed an alarming number of gopher balls.

Some theories that surfaced during the season to explain this included the possibility Santana may have been tipping his pitches. This means he was giving some sort of indication of what pitch was coming before delivering the pitch to the plate, and the hitters were able to pick up on that. A simpler explanation might be Santana failed to locate his change-up as effectively has he had in the past, leaving the ball up in the zone making it easier for the hitter to put some lift on the pitch after making solid contact. In combination with the sheer increased frequency Santana appears to have used his signature pitch, combined with the possibility of tipping, and just might explain this anomaly during an otherwise solid performance for the lefty.

In either case, unless Santana were to make adequate adjustments for this upcoming 2008 season, this trend may have continued or even worsened. These factors when combined with Johan's impending free agency next off-season, one would have to conclude the Twins front office made the best decision for the organization in trading him to the Mets. The long-term cost for a budget-conscious, cash strapped ball club, coupled with the risk of future injury commonly associated with major league pitchers, it makes sense to make the trade now especially after Johan rejected the Twins offer of four years, $80 million in favor of the prospect of a $150 million six year contract he would net on the free-agent market. Assuming the deal is finalized pending a contract extension and impending physicals, the Twins will receive four prospects from New York including center fielder Carlos Gomez, and pitchers Phil Humber, Kevin Mulvey, and Deolis Guerra. Minnesota was in need of a CF to replace Torii Hunter, who recently departed via free agency to the Los Angeles Angels. Eventually, the other three young pitchers will help overcome the loss of Santana, young right-hander Matt Garza in a trade to Tampa Bay, and right-hander Carlos Silva to the Seattle Mariners via free agency. In the short-term however, the fan base may be affected, as well as Minnesota's place in the final standings of the American League Central Division.

Johan will now attempt to make the proper adjustments in a new league (the NL, no DH), a new ballpark (Shea Stadium, historically pitcher friendly), and in a new clubhouse which the pain of last year's collapse still fresh in their minds. In addition, the hitters largely will be unfamiliar with facing Santana, in what is generally considered a weaker league. All of these factors should contribute to a strong performance by Santana in the coming seasons, barring injury. I wish him all the best and hope the Twins can move on and become a serious contender again when the new stadium opens in 2010.