John Edwards and the 2008 Presidential Election

Former North Carolina Senator and vice presidential candidate John Edwards made the most of his presidential coming out party at the end of December. The press conference used to announce his 2008 presidential bid was set in front of a New Orleans home that Edwards was helping restore for a family returning to the resurrected city. Edwards not only utilized the proper theatrics in grabbing America's attention about his candidacy but said everything necessary to please Democratic party activists. One of only three announced candidates in a potentially crowded Democratic field, Edwards laid down the gauntlet for all Americans by calling them to action. His "Two Americas" stump speech, once thought of as folksy if not entirely unworkable, now resonates in light of the tragedy of Hurricane Katrina.

Before continuing, I must defend Senator Edwards' use of New Orleans as a backdrop for his announcement. While some will say Edwards is exploiting the plight of poor New Orleans residents for his own political gains, his extensive work on poverty over the last two years makes it a perfect setting for his populist candidacy. As director of the Center of Poverty, Work and Opportunity at the University of North Carolina, Edwards has been active in advocating new approaches to the elimination of poverty in one of the most prosperous nations in the world. The use of storm torn New Orleans, whose poverty was exposed following Katrina, is only fitting and not inappropriate.

There are several reasons why I think John Edwards will win the Democratic nomination in 2008, in light of this perfectly crafted announcement. Edwards has been able to shore up his public profile over the last two years, developing strong responses to questions about his inexperience in foreign policy. The Edwards campaign, in its early stages, has developed sound language in response to these attacks by stating that the experienced policy staff of the Bush Administration has done little to protect America over the last six years. While I don't think inexperience is the answer to foreign policy problems, I do think the inexperience argument for Edwards is inaccurate. He served a full term in the Senate, has experience in a national general election, and has remained active over the last two years in his pet issues.

Edwards is also quick to admit mistakes and show thoughtfulness on issues that he has not made a clear decision on. The clearest example of this is a recent interview on ABC, where George Stephanopoulos asked the former senator about his position on gay marriage. Edwards has stated in the past that his Southern upbringing has made it difficult for him to reconcile his desire for equality and the nascent conservative voice deep within him. Edwards stated that he wasn't prepared yet to agree with equal marriage rights but he has stated on several occasions that civil unions can remedy the legal issues posed by civil rights activists. While I may disagree with Edwards on gay marriage, I think that his ability to admit his uncertainty about the issue is better than a lie and a half-hearted retraction.

The former senator may have improved his campaign rhetoric and "presidential voice" over the last two years, there is the matter of electoral math that seems to be favoring Edwards early on. Edwards could win Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina easily, given his deep commitment to courting votes early on and his unique platform. His commitment to improved education, national health care, and a renewed fight on poverty in America will ignite a fire in Democratic voters that is lacking in other candidates. Hillary Clinton has waffled on issues as diverse as the Iraq war and national health care, attempting to find the perfect public relations move instead of sticking to her guns. Barack Obama is the "sexy" candidate, like Wesley Clark and Howard Dean in 2004 and Jesse Jackson in 1984. None of those candidates won and the Democrats need to discourage Obama from wasting his potential with a premature run. Obama is the future of the Democratic Party and should work his way up the Senate ladder before plunging into presidential politics. There is a list of other candidates, including John Kerry, Christopher Dodd, and Dennis Kucinich whose chances are laughable. However, in primaries and caucuses, their small group of devoted followers can chip away at liberal support of Obama and Clinton. Edwards isn't just a hair-do and a Southern twang but has a solid policy profile that sets him apart from the competition.

John Edwards has the perfect combination of an activist's fire and a president's demeanor. Edwards seems equally at home at the podium and in interviews because his mild manner hides a political psyche starving to make a difference. America does not need another Bill Clinton, who was able to say what we wanted to hear the way we wanted to hear it. We need someone with a substantive program for change in America, which has fallen backwards into a poor replication of the conservative 1980s. The only question about Edwards that remains at this point is whether he will fall into the Democratic Leadership Council trap of playing the high ground against whomever the Republicans run in 2008. John Kerry failed using the strategy of Paul Begala and other DLC operatives by playing the high card in a lowest common denominator atmosphere. If the John Edwards that kicked off his populist campaign with a rousing speech in New Orleans shows up for the presidential debates in the fall of 2008, we can look forward to an Edwards Administration devoted to the important social issues of the day.