John Edwards VS Elizabeth Dole

As I look at the 2008 Presidential Race for president on the Democratic Party's side, I am seeing that it is becoming more and more unlikely that John Edwards will be the nominee of the party. I mean, he lost Iowa where he bet the house in, he lost in New Hampshire by a major margin, and now he looks poised to lose Nevada and South Carolina as well, which means he will officially be done as it is. With that in mind, I have to wonder to myself, should John Edwards drop out of the presidential race and run for the Senate against Elizabeth Dole in North Carolina? After all, John Edwards was the former Senator of that state before he decided to run in 2004 for the Democratic presidential nomination and lost to John Kerry and eventually lost the presidency as the vice presidential nominee to Kerry. Therefore, I ask the question, should John Edwards run again and could he win again if he ran?

Well the answer to both of these questions is rather complicated. The reason for that is because John Edwards has absolutely no intentions to run for that seat in North Carolina even though I feel the party could use someone who has a realistic shot at taking down Elizabeth Dole. After all, it is another seat the Democrats will gain and they do need to gain seats with the deadlock in the Senate now and Elizabeth Dole is a very vulnerable candidate if the right guy or girl ran. For example, a Public Policy Polling Poll had Elizabeth Dole's approval ratings as of October 30^th at 45%, which is rather low for any Senator who has a seat in Congress. But Elizabeth Dole is going to face a bunch of quacks that don't even have a ghost of a chance of beating her. For example, there was polling done on each quack that was going to run against her and she blew them all out of the water. She beats Kay Hagan 55-35% in a late December poll and she beats Jim Neal 47-32% in October, which means she blows them both out.

To be fair, there was never a poll released about a John Edwards and an Elizabeth Dole race but you got to think that he couldn't do any worse than these people running now. In all fairness, there are potential candidates like first lady Mary Easley. But I don't think she will run because after all, her husband has repeatedly refused to run for the seat because he doesn't want to be part of the Washington DC mess we have now. So what makes anyone think that his wife would run? I don't think she will and it is going to be because her husband doesn't want her to run because of the DC mess we have on our hands right now. Representative Heath Shuler of the state is another possible candidate but again, I don't see him running. He might be able to win but if he doesn't run, who knows for sure?

That brings me back to my question, should John Edwards run? Well part of answering that question is answering another question. Could John Edwards beat Elizabeth Dole? Therefore, we must look at evidence to answer the second question and so far, the evidence I have provided you has shown Elizabeth Dole with horrific approval rating numbers. However, there were 36% in this survey that disapproved, which is lower than her approval ratings, which means that not many people know who she is. That could work in both ways for John Edwards because John Edwards is a very well known figure because of his candidacy in 2004 and 2008, not to mention, he was the vice presidential nominee in 2004 to John Kerry and was arguably the stronger link between him and Kerry. At the same time though, I and everyone else has to recognize when they think about this that Elizabeth Dole could also fool people who don't know her to vote for her if she can attack John Edwards effectively.

What do I mean by that? Well the explanation is very simple. Elizabeth Dole could pain John Edwards as a far left loon like many members of the media painted him. For example, it seems every night over and over again, Fox News Commentators Bill O Reilly and Sean Hannity portray Edwards as a very left wing guy but also as a hypocrite. Sean Hannity kept bringing up the haircuts John Edwards has received while talking about the two Americas and Bill O Reilly has called Edwards a charlatan on the air back during the autumn season and still fires and fires at him to this day. Those attacks nationally have failed because the polls do show John Edwards with higher favorability ratings than the leading Democrats Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. However, these attacks might work in North Carolina because of the simple fact that North Carolina is now a conservative leaning purple state and not a liberal state and Edwards has been portrayed as an angry liberal taking on big companies and corporations.

For that reason, you would say that Elizabeth Dole has an advantage in this race over John Edwards because of how the state tilts and how Edwards can be portrayed. I mean look at the polls of Elizabeth Dole. She has roughly a third of voters there who don't know anything or enough about her to base an opinion one way or another and she does have a 45% approval rating, which means her disapproval ratings are lower than her approval ratings. Therefore, since she is the conservative and since Edwards is portrayed as a very liberal guy because of this campaign, he could be in serious trouble and could be under serious scrutiny as being a radical leftist who is nothing short of socialist and North Carolina will not like that. North Carolina is a conservative state. Sure it is a purple state now, which means any party could win it but it still is a conservative state not a liberal one and that could hurt John Edwards since he seemed more and more liberal in this election. Another big issue will be immigration and his support for amnesty because if he stays the way he is now, he will decrease his chance but if he does the other strategy and plays a balancing act and plays a moderate view, and then he might be charged as a flip flopper, which could hurt him too. Those would be real good openings for Elizabeth Dole among the people who don't know her enough as their Senator.

However if you look at it the other way, it could also be a good thing John Edwards is running. After all, there are about a third of North Carolina voters who do not know Elizabeth Dole and I would think more people would know who John Edwards is there. Another leg up on him would be Barack Obama. Barack Obama is really popular among the Independents, young voters, and African American voters and he could turn out for Edwards in North Carolina and speak at places like North Carolina University and Duke University and tell people to vote for Edwards as he says to vote for him. Remember, North Carolina has a good possibility of being a battleground state in 2008 worth 13 electoral votes. So it would be perfect for Edwards if Obama turns out for him. However if Clinton is the nominee, then she needs to stay well away from Edwards' race because she is hated there since the state is right leaning.

It isn't just that however. I mean, Edwards could also fight hard his populist message he has and fight it hard there. After all, John Edwards is a populist running in a state where the economy is tanking and tanking rather fast due to the housing problems and outsourcing jobs overseas. John Edwards can bring that up and how Elizabeth cost the state many jobs by voting for the free trade agreements since I do think the state is becoming increasingly fairer trade. John Edwards will have to stay away from poverty though and that is what Dole will have to hit on to take Edwards down and she well could since he made poverty an issue. But all in all, if Edwards attacks Dole's record and makes her part of Washington DC and the status quo, he might surprise people in his state and win the race. But the prospect of him running is not a good one and probably won't happen but I thought I would put it up there in the political groups and blogs to start some sort of speculation.

In my opinion, I think John Edwards should immediately drop out of the presidential race. That is my opinion for sure because he will lose it because of the corporate political machines of Clinton and Obama. I do like Edwards and did support him in the 2008 race when you had idiots like that doughnut stuffing fat moron Bob Schrum basically attack Edwards and backstab him and his beautiful wife. I supported him and support him now even though many people are turning on him and stabbing him in the back as well. But we do have to be realistic. John Edwards is finished.

As for the senate race though, I really don't know. I just really don't know if a tricky state like North Carolina will elect someone like John Edwards who has had the haircuts worth more than me, if they will elect someone for amnesty for illegals, or if they will elect someone portrayed as a far left nutcase. I mean it will be a tuff sale for him because his ratings in North Carolina are not so hot either. So Edwards will have a fight on his hands. But if you look at it through another prospective, Edwards does have a better chance of winning than those other schmucks do who are running and I see Elizabeth Dole blowing them both out by at least 20 points on Election Day. Edwards however does have a few things going for him such as Obama, his wife Elizabeth who could bring a sympathy vote, and his energy and need for change and Dole's need for status quo. That could work for Edwards. So if you did have to push me, I'd say Edwards should run because he does represent a chance down there and we do need to win a clear majority in the Senate so we can accomplish some things with a Democratic president. However, if you were to push me on who would win between them two, I think Dole would squeak out a victory because Edwards has messed up and has been open to criticism, which could work since Hannity and O Reilly are very powerful figures in the media and reach large audiences. However, what does Edwards got to lose? I say he should give it a shot and make the race competitive and make the Senatorial Campaign for the GOP works there since they do have little money to pass around.

Sources: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/surveys/PPP_Release_110107.pdf
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/north_carolina/north_carolina_2008_presidential_election/