John McCain's Road to the 2008 Republican Presidential Nomination and Why Mitt Romney Will Win it

Arizona's favorite Senator, John McCain, is once again running for President, this time, not as a maverick - no that didn't work for him last time - he is running as a good-old-boy style of Republican who's for a bigger war and Christian values, and who will run as far to the right as right can go.

Oh, poor John must just like to lose.

Sure, it seems like a decent strategy. After all, the Maverick thing didn't work out too well for McCain in 2000 and the good-ole-boy bit it worked real fine for his opponent, George W. Bush.

Also, the Republican neocon base are the ones who traditionally write the big checks. So, why won't appealing to that group work to McCain's advantage in 2008?

The tent has simply become too big. While appealing to the base may work for a candidate looking for enough electoral votes in a general election, the base simply is not large enough to carry a candidate in a primary across all fifty states, especially given McCain's competition.

Rudy Giuliani sure isn't going to win many southern states, if any at all. Former MA governor Mitt Romney may not win that many either, but both will do exceptionally well in the industrial mid-west, the Pacific west coast, and in the New England states.

McCain's recent far right media stunts, such as coming out and saying that Roe v. Wade should be overturned and advocating an unpopular troop swell in Iraq, have already lost him the very important states above.

That leaves the southern states and the Rocky Mountain States up for grabs. McCain needs a sweep in the South to win. He might actually be able to do it too... if only Romney and Giuliani were his only competition.

Shame. Enter the Huckabee factor. A conservative Republican governor from Arkansas. A true southerner, a true conservative, and a former governor. Mike Huckabee is one of the good-ole-boys in the South, unlike McCain, who will just be pretending.

Here's how it's going to play out:

Iowa - 1/21/2008 - An early victory for John McCain, and a stunningly close second for Romney.
New Hampshire - 1/28/2008 - Once providing momentum to McCain's 2000 campaign with an early primary victory; voters here will once again reject the ultra-conservative image that McCain has remade himself in for a figure more in line with their views, and one who is not from New York City. Romney will win, followed by the former NYC mayor.

South Carolina - 2/2/2008 - McCain will need to win this in order pick himself back up off of the mat. Unfortunately for him, Huckabee, who knew he had no chance of winning in New Hampshire, has been campaigning here alone for at least a week, while the "big three" fought it out in America's first Primary. Voters here will prop up the candidate who they recognize as being one of them, not the pretender. McCain will finish a close second, but it will be a crushing blow going into Super Tuesday, which is February 5th.

Up for grabs on the 5th are as follows:

Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Delaware, Florida, Michigan, Missouri, New Jersey, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Utah.

Ladies and gentlemen, these states really aren't that tough to call. McCain obviously wins Arizona, Giuliani in New Jersey, and Arkansas for Huckabee, and Romney wins Utah by a landslide.

So now that leaves Alabama, California, Delaware, Florida, Michigan, Missouri, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, and Oklahoma.

Romney will most likely win in Michigan, California will be primarily fought between Giuliani and Romney, leaving neo-neo-con McCain a distant third, Delaware is in the same boat as California.

That leaves Alabama, Florida, Missouri, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, and Oklahoma.

Florida will be a hard fought race between all four candidates; McCain can probably rally a win in New Mexico, leaving Oklahoma, North Carolina, North Dakota, Missouri and Alabama. Of which McCain will lose at least half of these states to Huckabee.

By the time the day is done, Romney will have a commanding lead in the vote count and the rest of the states will fall into place for him. Then he'll be off to face a Democratic challenger in a year when the Democrats have all of the momentum.

It was over for McCain before it even began.