John Smoltz Out for the Year - Is the Atlanta Braves' Season Next to Go?

John Smoltz is out for the rest of this season, as he'll be undergoing shoulder surgery. But without him, can Atlanta still sustain a pennant chase? Let's take a look:

The starting rotation hasn't seen Smoltzie in over a month. Right now, the rotation goes Tim Hudson, Tom Glavine, Jair Jurrjens, Jo-Jo Reyes, and Jorge Campillo.
Hudson and Jurrjens have been dominant, as both have thrown over 70 innings and have ERAs of 3.01 and 3.45, respectively. Hudson has been the leader, with a K/BB ratio of 51/19 and WHIP (walks+hits per innings pitched) of 1.14. For those who don't know, these prove Huddy has been in complete control, as he doesn't walk many batters, keeps 'em guessing (good amount of strikeouts), and he doesn't get scored on too much. Jurrjens has been almost as good, striking out more than 6 batters a game, and sporting a fair WHIP at 1.38.

Considering those two are a combined 12-7, though, you'd figure they were good.

However, with Smoltz going down, the possibility of him coming back to the rotation is completely shot. Although Jorge Campillo has fantastic numbers (excepting his last outing), he is a reliever-turned-starter, and the possibility of his arm wearing down is an issue. In addition, Glavine and Reyes have been solid, but not great., as each has been a rollercoaster ride. Glavine sports a 29/27 strikeout-to-walk ratio, indicating there are control issues to be resolved. And Reyes barely averages over 5 innings a start, something that'll have to change going forward if the bullpen is to remain healthy.

Still, one cannot argue with the fact the Braves lead the National League in team ERA, at 3.58 (prior to Wednesday, June 4th). In fact, they also are 1st in Batting Average Against, 2nd in WHIP, and 2nd in opponent OPS (on-base plus slugging...the lower the number, the less base runners and big hits given up). But they are just 10th in Quality Starts, where a starting pitchers gives up 3 or less runs and goes at least six innings. And this is where Smoltz will be missed.

See, if the starter for a team can't get past the 5th inning, then multiple relievers will need to be used to finish the ballgame. Considering Atlanta has eight relievers in total (which is actually one more than the standard practice), arms will begin to wear out down the stretch. Chris Resop and Royce Ring have never pitched more than 21 innings in a season- both are over eighteen IP already. In fact, only two Braves' relievers have ever pitched more than 70 innings in a season: Rafael Soriano, who just returned from injury, Peter Moylan, and Jeff Bennett, an innings-eating specialist. What this means is the bullpen is young, and fairly inexperienced. Although together, they've been lights-out so far, nobody can predict how the guys with little pitching experience will hold up to the strain of 70+ innings, especially when the pressure is on in the midst of a playoff run.

John Smoltz, however, has always been great in the postseason, with a combined 15-4 record in the playoffs and a 2.70 ERA. Need I mention those numbers are against some of the best in the game, as it's the playoffs? Without this dominant force in October, the Braves have lost a major strength for not just the playoffs, but the stretch run as well. Considering Smoltz has recorded 154 saves in just four seasons as the Atlanta closer, and never had an ERA above 3.50 in that role, having the relief of seeing him pitch is gone, because far more often than not, he'd get the job done and do it well.

Losing John Smoltz will assuredly be a hard blow to a pitching staff that has so far excelled this season. And without his experience, there are a lot of rookies that will have to step up and fill some very big shoes. While I don't see the Braves fading anytime soon, the question of youth will not be addressed until September onward. Then we'll see what we've really got.