Jose Bautista's 54 Home Run Season is Fishy and Probably Not Real

Did Jose Bautista use performance enhancing drugs like steroids in the 2010 baseball season during which he posted career highs in all categories while playing for the Toronto Blue Jays?

In 2010 Bautista hit 54 home runs to lead the major leagues and also had 124 RBI's and scored 109 runs in 569 official at-bats. Those numbers are so far above the career norms Bautista had established in both the minor leagues and major leagues prior to 2010 that they are fishy and probably not real numbers that are the product of God given ability.

Bautista's numbers in 2010 were likely the product of performance enhancing drug use though it is not believed that Bautista failed any drug tests in 2010 so nobody knows for sure whether or not he used performance enhancing drugs like steroids.

Why are the Numbers So Fishy?

In 2010 Jose Bautista averaged a HR once every 9.5% of the time he had an official at-bat (54 divided by 569). He also averaged an RBI once for every 21.8% of the time he an official AB and scored a run once every 19.2% of the time he batted.

The previous best numbers for Bautista in the majors are:

HR average of 4.1% in 2008 when he hit 15 HR's in 370 at-bats.

RBI average of 14.6% when he drove in 54 runs in 370 at-bats.

A run average of 16.1% when he scored 54 runs in 336 at-bats.

So in 2010 Jose Bautista increased his HR production by 131%, his RBI production by 49% and his run average by 19% above the previous best levels he had ever achieved in the major leagues.

Jose Bautista's Increased Production Levels in 2010 Over Previous MLB Highs

Home Runs - 131%

RBI's - 49%

Runs Scored - 19%

Bautista also increased his HR production by 179%, his RBI production by 82% and his run production by 40% above what he had established as his normal levels over 1,754 at-bats in the major leagues prior to 2010. And he batted 532 times in 2007 so the argument that he was finally able to play full-time in 2010 does not explain his increased production plus he was 29 years of age in 2010 and playing pro ball for 10 years.

Jose Bautista's Increased Production Levels in 2010 Above His Previous MLB Norms

Home Runs - 179%

RBI's - 82%

Runs Scored - 40%

And the increased production in 2010 was not a case of a player finally living up to his potential since Bautista's 2010 production was 171% better in HR's, 44% better in RBI's and 20% better than his career minor league averages which were established over 1,471 at-bats.

Jose Bautista's Increased Production Levels in 2010 Above His Minor League Numbers

Home Runs - 171%

RBI's - 44%

Runs Scored - 20%

Any way one looks at the numbers the increased production Jose Bautista showed during the 2010 baseball season looks extremely fishy.

His home run numbers are the most fishy as he increased his production by more than double above anything he had ever accomplished professionally before. Performance enhancing drugs like steroids provide greater strength which would most likely be seen in increased power numbers like home runs.

In every major category Jose Bautista recorded the best numbers of his career in 2010 and numbers that are so far above anything he has ever done before in professional baseball that one has to question the numbers and any sensible person can easily come to the conclusion the numbers are not real and were likely the product of performance enhancing drug use like steroids.

For more see How Many Extra Home Runs Mark McGwire Hit By Taking Steorids

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Sources:Jose Bautista at Baseball Reference