Kentucky Derby 2011: Favorites Have Long Odds Early
Find a Great Price on a Great Horse Early
The trick to finding a good long shot now is to get in a future bet before they run their first Kentucky Derby prep race. The Wood Memorial was the standard for Kentucky Derby prep races in earlier years but now there are big stakes races much earlier in the year that have become jumping off points for the better three year old horses.
This year the first talked about Kentucky Derby prep race was the Holy Bull at Gulfstream Park. The event hosted a talented field and Dialed In made an impressive come from behind run to take the race over Sweet Ducky and Gourmet Dinner. Dialed In is also a horse of note because he is familiar with the Churchill Downs turf, breaking his maiden on the famed circuit.
Odds to Win the 2011 Kentucky Derby: The Favorites
Dialed In: 10-1
With the win in the Holy Bull Grade 3 race at Gulfstream Dialed In is one of the early favorites heading into the beginning of Kentucky Derby preparations. Dialed In made an impressive run and looked good doing it in the Holy Bull which knocked down the odds to the 10-1 number it rests at currently.
Comma to the Top: 25-1
Comma to the Top disappointed in his last outing in Santa Anita. In the Grade 3 El Camino Real Derby with Corey Nakatani aboard, Comma to the Top ran fourth at the mile and an eighth distance. This came after a four race win streak with three of those races over a mile in distance. Comma to the Top is expected to run the San Felipe in March and the Santa Anita Derby April ninth if all goes well.
Jaycito: 40-1
Jaycito struggled in first race against better competition at the Breeders Cup Juvenile finishing seventh and has not run since. This weekend will tell the tale on Jaycito when Bob Baffert's colt hits the turf at Santa Anita in the San Vicente Grade 2. If this is a horse to be considered the bet should be made before Sunday's San Vicente.
Mucho Macho Man: 40-1
Mucho Macho Man showed promise in the Holy Bull at Gulfstream a couple weeks ago by finishing fourth. The Holy Bull descendant Mucho Macho Man is being pointed to the Risen Star at the Fairgrounds this Saturday and has been tabbed as the 5-1 second favorite behind Rogue Romance. We will know more after this race but for anyone looking to play the colt in the Kentucky Derby futures it is a good idea to get down on him before the gate opens on Saturday.
Elite Alex: 50-1
Elite Alex is pointing towards a President's Day run in the Southwest at Oaklawn. If he does well in the Grade 3 as expected he will be set for one or possibly two races before the Kentucky Derby. Anyone looking to make a future bet on Elite Alex will have to get their bet in by Monday morning before the talk on this horse takes of after this first serious prep race.
Gourmet Dinner: 60-1
With a best Beyer rating of 94, Gourmet Dinner is coming off a hard fought race in the Holy Bull. In that race Gourmet Dinner came up one and a half lengths short of second place, recording a third place finish. It was a good trip and will lead to the three year old bay colt taking on tougher competition in Kentucky Derby preps.
Leave of Absence: 75-1
A sixth place in the Holy Bull was less than expected but look for this horse to warm up with the weather. It may be a good idea to wait on betting this horse as the odds may move up the board instead of down.
Avoid Heavy Favorites Early in Kentucky Derby Futures
Horses to avoid with short odds are Uncle Mo at 3-1 and To Honor and Serve at 5-1. It is never a good bet to plunk down money for two months on a horse that will go off at the same odds on race day. The balance of betting Kentucky Derby futures is to bet horses that give an opportunity to hedge the bet. 25-1 through 100-1 odds can be a big payoff and hedge opportunity if three or four of those horses make the field.
More from Yahoo Contributor Network:
Kentucky Derby 2011: Early Long Shots & Predictions
Breeders Cup Classic 2010: Post Positions Opening Odds & Picks
Kentucky Derby 2010: Rain is Coming Pick a Mudder to Win
Statistical sources:
Published by Todd Jacobs
Todd Jacobs is from Anaheim, California and resides in the city of Las Vegas. Todd worked for Orange Coast Magazine as News Editor in the 80s and recently began writing for several online sites including:... View profile
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- This year the first talked about Kentucky Derby prep race was the Holy Bull at Gulfstream Park.
- It was a good trip & will lead to the bay colt taking on tougher competition in Kentucky Derby preps
- Comma to the Top disappointed in his last outing in Santa Anita.