Kentucky Derby 2011: Post Positions and Long Shot Picks to Win

The Kentucky Derby post positions and the morning line odds were set on the 20 horse field May 4 in the Churchill Downs paddock of the Louisville, Kentucky track. Who picked up the best draw among the favorites? The Daliy Racing Form posted the positions and odds shortly after the draw. Mucho Macho Man will be in a prime post position in the second No, 13 post position.

The Kentucky Derby uses two gates in the Derby. There is the 14 post main gate and the auxiliary gate that holds the remaining six gates. Mucho Macho Man will have a nice gap to shoot from his No. 13 spot in the gate. Another good draw will be favorite, Dialed In. He has pulled the No. 8 spot and should have an opportunity for a good break in this spot.

1. Archarcharch 10-1

Jon Court and Antacharch draw the rail for the Kentucky Derby, a position that can be tough to overcome in a 20 horse field. In the No. 1 hole it is a strange break from inside to out. This makes Archacharch a bad play at 10-1.

2. Brilliant Speed 30-1

Joel Rosario does not have much of a chance on Brilliant Speed but anything can happen in the Kentucky Derby.

3. Twice the Appeal 20-1

Twice the Appeal was less attractive until the draw. With Calvin Borel up in the stirrups the main with the nickname of "Bo-rail" is in a perfect spot that suits is style of hugging the rail. Borel has magic in this race and has won three of the last four. At 20-1 Borel is a perfect long shot bet.

4. Stay Thirsty 20-1

Ramon Dominguez gets the mount over Calvin Borel in this spot and now they are side by side. Stay Thirsty is a good horse to look at in the exotics.

5. Decisive Moment 30-1

36 years of riding and Kevin Clark finally has a Kentucky Derby mount. Too bad it is Decisive Moment. Clark will have a tough time once this race hits the back stretch then he will fade.

6. Comma to the Top 30-1

Corey Nakatani hops off this horse in favor of Nehro. Patrick Valenzuela is up on Comma to the Top and he is an accomplished stakes rider. Valenzuela told the Daily Racing Form, "He's run some great races and he's a good horse," Valenzuela said. "Hopefully we can get in the winner's circle with him."

7. Pants On Fire 20-1

Pants on Fire was a favorite of the futures bettors but support may sour now. Rosie Napravnik will be up on Pants on Fire but she is not the reason the horse is bad choice. Napravnik is a good bet to win the Derby one day but not in this year's edition.

8. Dialed In 4-1

Dialed In is the top choice going into this race and with good reason. Dialed In has a great post position and Julien R. Leparoux is a smart jockey. The problem with Dialed In is that he is the favorite. It is rarely a good sign to be the favorite. Look for Dialed In as a choice in the exotics but do not put him on top/

9. Derby Kitten 30-1

Javier Castellano gets to run for the roses but he and Derby Kitten won't be close enough to sniff them when this race heads down the stretch.

10. Twinspired 30-1

Mike Smith is a veteran jockey with a live underdog in this Kentucky Derby. Smith is a smart rider and he knows every inch of the Churchill Downs turf. Look for Smith to around the front when they head for home an then it will be a matter of having enough horse to get to the finish line first.

11. Master of Hounds 30-1

Garrett Gomez will be aboard the Irish horse Master of Hounds. 30-1 is a nice price on the out of towner but Gomez and Master of Hounds are outclassed in this Derby.

12. Santiva 30-1

Shaun X. Bridgmohan is aboard another long shot in Santiva. Not a good bet for exotics or anything else.

13. Mucho Macho Man 12-1

Rajiv Maragh is aboard the popular choice to win this years Kentucky Derby. Mucho Macho Man has everything going for him including the post position. No. 13 may be unlucky for some but in the Derby it is the second to last post in the first gate and a good position to break from. Mucho Macho Man deserves a look

14. Shackleford 12-1

Shackleford is in a great spot as well. With Jesus Castonon up in the stirrups this is another solid combination to look at. Possible exotic bet and definitely deserves a look to win the whole thing.

15. Midnight Interlude 10-1

There is a lot of action on Midnight Interlude but I am not buying for the 10-1 price. Victor Espinoza is a good jockey but not a very good spot on the first post of the second gate. Throw Midnight Interlude out of all bets including superfectas. This horse will not be within 10 lengths of the top five.

16. Animal Kingdom 30-1

Robbie Albarado gets to lap the track in the Kentucky Derby bit that is about it.

17. Soldat 12-1

The Fountain of Youth Stakes winner with Alan Garcia up is favored for a reason. Possible horse to link in exotics but be cautious and watch the TVG previews to see if the horse is prepared and looking chipper on race day.

18. Uncle Mo 9-2 SCRATCHED

John Velazquez and Uncle Mo are the second favorite in the Kentucky Derby with good reason. They have an outside post that can be used to help with strategy and the horse has been impressive. the Wood Memorial win was a huge confidence builder and the main reason this horse is 9-2 on the morning line.

19. Nehro 6-1

Corey Nakatani hopped off of Twice the Appeal to ride Nehro, the third favorite in the Kentucky Derby. Nehro worked in the rain on May 2 and looked tentative down the stretch in the work. Look for Nehro to make a run and be in contention down the stretch. Nehro is not worth a win bet but consider an exotic.

20. Watch Me Go 50-1

The longest shot on the board is Watch Me Go. The horse will be 99-1 at post time. In other words, look elsewhere.

Final Picks:

Win Bet: Mucho Macho Man

Place Bet: Twice the Appeal

Show Bet: Shackleford

sources:

Kentucky Derby Draw: Dialed In gets post 8; Uncle Mo 18