Kenya Braces for More Violence

The main opposition group in Kenya has called for a new round of public protests after competing parties failed to reach an agreement for resolving the political deadlock that followed the December 27 presidential election. Violence has spread throughout the country since the government announced the re-election of Kenyan President Mwai Kibeki December 30, with more than 500 people estimated to have been killed thus far. Joel Barkan, writing for the Center for Strategic and International Studies, says that in addition to the dead, "...more than 250,000 Kenyans, mainly Kikuyu settlers in the western Rift Valley, have been displaced from their homes."

Other protests since the election have been stopped by Kenyan authorities, sometimes with questionable methods. Mediation efforts by the chairman of the African Union, Ghana President John Kufuor, have not borne fruit and new negotiations will be attempted by former head of the United Nations Kofi Annan.

The election between Kibeki and rival Raila Odinga has been characterized as deeply flawed, although the International Security Network reports otherwise. Writing on January 10, Garrett Jones says, "While there were some reported problems-shortage of ballots, attempted intimidation, etc.-it worked well enough at the local level." But, Jones warns, despite the relative smoothness of the process, the incumbent managed to manipulate the results. Jones says, "Raw results showed that the challenger...defeated the incumbent...by about a million votes...." He went on to say, "Somewhere between the local polling stations and the Kenyan Electoral Commission in Nairobi, incumbent president Kibaki simply stole the election and had himself declared winner."

With current resolution efforts stalled and new dialogue not set to begin until Annan's arrival next week, there is much speculation about how to best end the Kenyan crisis. The Heritage Foundation, a conservative think tank in Washington, D.C., says there could be any one of several possible outcomes, including a recount of the ballots, a new power-sharing agreement between the president and the opposition, or a completely new election. So far, Kibaki has resisted calls for an interim government and has instead sworn some of his allies into the cabinet.

The situation in Kenya rapidly deteriorated after the election results were announced, and many fear renewed violence in the wake of stalled efforts at compromise. Kenya has been a partner of the United States in its prosecution of the global war on terror, and the U.S. provides substantial aid to Kenya in return. Stephanie Hanson of the Council on Foreign Relations says, "The urgency of the situation is only magnified by the critical role Kenya plays geopolitically."

Sources: Center for Strategic and International Studies, International Security Network, Heritage Foundation, Council on Foreign Relations