Kilimanjaro - the Inconvenient Reality

Mount Kilimanjaro has been utilized by many global warming proponents as a symbol of the continuing consequences of human actions. Kilimanjaro is a massive stratovolcano and boasts the highest peak in all of Africa. Al Gore's oscar winning documentary illustrates how the glaciers have melted over the years and he quotes Hemmingway, saying "Within a decade, there will be no more 'Snows of Kilimanjaro.'"

This is such a profound scene in his documentary that the clip was chosen for the trailers promoting the film's release. In fact, the climate change crusade has adopted the indication of any glacial decline as clear and indisputable evidence of global warming. I must admit, it makes sense - when temperatures rise, ice melts. Even my five year old nephew wouldn't argue with that kind of logic. However, changes in glacial mass and snow stock are the product of numerous variables that are blatantly overlooked by the global warming movement.

Since 1912, when the first measurements of the glaciers that cover the top of Kilimanjaro were recorded, the ice cap volume has dropped 82%. The mountain lost almost a quarter of its ice mass between 2000 and 2006. Researchers, such as ice core paleoclimatologist Lonnie Thompson, predict that the ice on top of Kilimanjaro will disappear between 2015 and 2020. In less than eight years, the mountain's name may have to be changed from Kilimanjaro meaning "shining mountain" in Swahili, to a less alluring, "Kilimakavu" roughly meaning "dry and hard mountain."

This is a very scary thought for the areas surrounding inhabitants that rely heavily on the money that tourism brings into the country; people from all over the world come to see the beauty that Hemmingway described in his short story. The concern is that when the ice vanishes from Kilimanjaro, the tourists will as well. A heart wrenching picture has been painted by climate change disciples - we, in the first-world nations, through greed and ignorance, have polluted the Earth's atmosphere and caused further hardships for the planets poorest inhabitants. Many have accepted the guilt and fear and have begun to heed Al Gore's advice to act now in an attempt to reverse the horrendous effects that have been caused through our misguided actions.

The inconvenient truth about the melting glaciers of Kilimanjaro is far more complicated than Al Gore's narrow view. The truth is that the ice on top of the world's tallest free-standing mountain rise would still be dwindling away even if the industrial revolution had never taken place. Researchers believe that the glaciers have been shrinking for more than a century - long before global warming. It has been a topic of scientific concern for over a hundred years.

From 1912 to 1953, Kilimanjaro lost 45 percent of its glaciers, in an era that is not associated with human greenhouse gas emissions. Also, the glaciers are located above the mean freezing point which points to the conviction that there must be variables other than temperature involved. Recent research conducted by a team led by Nicolas Cullen of the Tropical Glaciology Group at the University of Innsbruck, suggests that variation in precipitation is the primary cause of glacial change in the tropics. "In the tropics, glaciers are particularly sensitive to humidity and cloudiness, which control the amount of incident solar radiation."* The group of researchers also found that the glacial recession rate over the 15-year period of 1989-2003 was smaller than all other intervals within the study period between 1912-2003. So at the height of global warming, Kilimanjaro has experienced a slow down in glacial melting. Despite the dubious theories of climate change alarmists, the snow cap on Kilimanjaro is diminishing due to the lack of atmospheric moisture and regional land use.

Douglas R. Hardy, a climatologist at the University of Massachusetts believes that deforestation due to agriculture and forest fires at the base of the mountain are the real human influence on the glacial recession. "The loss of foliage causes less moisture to be pumped into the atmosphere, leading to reduced cloud cover and precipitation and increased solar radiation and glacial evaporation."** Global warming was mistakenly attributed to the glacial recession on Kilimanjaro. There are other areas where climate change was expected but nothing seems to have happened because of increased atmospheric moisture. Antarctic sea ice, for example, does not seem to be decreasing, most likely due to increased precipitation in the area.

The reason that I have brought up these contrary views is not to be divergent or contrarian but merely to warn you of the costs of accepting media as truth. I care deeply for the environment and I am not claiming that global warming does not exist - I simply believe that its theory has some kinks and its assessments and predictions contain extreme variances that render them impractical. For instance, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) which is the body that was set up under the United Nations predicted that global temperatures will increase by 1.4 to 5.8 °C between 1990 and 2100. In less than 10 years, the IPCC changed their prediction in a 2001 report to an increase of 1.1-6.4 °C. The vast range between these predictions coupled with the fact that no previous climate change model has been able to accurately predict the actual rise or fall in temperature over the period a decade should warn us against accepting these predictions as inevitable. The unreliable nature of these scientific predictions withstanding, I don't believe that we should abandon the project. Continuing climate model validation and observing temperature trends will, in time, resolve a good deal of the current uncertainty of predictions.

Global warming is an issue that has been gaining tremendous attention in the international community. Striving to reverse the adverse effects of climate change is as big of a fad in Hollywood as entering rehab clinics. It seems like everyone is concerned and vowing to fight against the damage that we have done. Climate change is increasingly being sighted as the cause of every weather anomaly around the world. The truth is that there are sundry variables at play that are being overlooked by the mainstream media. I applaud Al Gore and the tremendous work that he has done as a spokesman for the environment. However, we as media consumers must strive for certainty to protect ourselves from adopting biased and uninformed beliefs. So, if you want to join the environment movement, please be critical of what you accept as truth.

'Truth' has become increasingly convenient thanks to the improvement of media vehicles, such as 24 hour news channels and the internet, which allow for dissemination of news at a far greater speed and scale. But can we trust these resources to be accurate and unbiased enough to count as 'truth'? The best sensor is knowledge; only then can truth be discovered rather than prescribed.

REFERENCES:

*http://www.worldclimatereport.com/index.php/2006/10/09/Kilimanjaro-glaciers-exit-the-debate/

**http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2003/09/0923_030923_kilimanjaroglaciers.html