Kobe is the Last Horse Alive in the Race to Five

After the Los Angeles Lakers won the NBA title last summer, and Kobe Bryant added the fourth championship ring to his collection, I wrote a piece called the First to 5: Kobe, Shaq or Duncan, which talked about each man and his chances of bringing home a fifth title at the end of the 2009-2010 season.

As the 2010 NBA playoffs move forward, Kobe is the last horse alive in the race to five. Tim Duncan and the San Antonio Spurs were demolished by Steve Nash and the Phoenix Suns. The Cleveland Cavaliers were upset in the Eastern Conference semifinals by a rejuvenated Boston Celtics squad led by Rajon Rondo and Kevin Garnett. It ended Shaq's quest to "win a ring for the king", instead sending him packing with a Big Ticket towards summer vacation.

I only gave the Cavaliers a 33% chance to win the Eastern Conference and the Spurs a 25% chance to win the Western Conference, so neither result is particularly surprising except for the fashion in which it took place. The Spurs were swept by a team they had dominated over the course of a decade, and the Cavaliers were at times embarrassed by the Celtics.

So it's up to Kobe and his Lakers now if anybody will be bringing home a fifth NBA title. I had given the Lakers a 70% chance to win the West and a 50% chance to repeat as champions. Those are odds that I still like considering the match-ups they will be facing.

The Lakers have a huge size advantage over the Phoenix Suns, and should be able to stifle much of their offense if they can control the pace of the game. You can expect Pau Gasol to have a dominating series, with Kobe only needing to dial up the heat occasionally, important considering his always iffy health status.

Should the Orlando Magic make it past the Boston Celtics, I don't expect the Lakers to have any difficulty repeating as champions. You can watch how quickly the season long resurgence of Vince Carter fades away under the brightest lights and with Ron Artest tracing and bullying him all over the court.

As for a rematch of the NBA finals two years ago against the Boston Celtics, this is a series the Lakers could struggle in. Nobody will be able to contain Rondo, and Gasol will have all that he can handle and then some against a healthy Garnett. The Lakers chances would then rest on Lamar Odom and Andrew Bynum consistently stepping up, something you don't want to entirely put your faith in.

Only one man of the three that had a chance to win a fifth NBA title this season is still alive. Kobe Bryant and the Lakers are looking strong, but several obstacles still stand in the path towards a repeat performance and back to back championships. If I had to bet I'd go with Kobe and LA, but a healthy Celtics team in the Finals should be a scary thought for them.