Kosovo Declares Independence

The Serbian province of Kosovo unilaterally declared its independence February 17, making good on a pledge to move toward Kosovar statehood that has been postponed several times in the past.

The international community has long expected the independence move, and Kosovar Prime Minister Hashim Thaci reiterated the renegade province's intentions just a few days ago. The real question now is whether or not key international players like the United States and the European Union will recognize a unilateral break from a sovereign nation. Both the U.S. and the EU have stated previously that they would support Kosovar independence, while Russia has warned against formal recognition for fear that other renegade provinces around the world would use Kosovo's declaration as a precedent for their own independence.

Writing in an analysis for The Heritage Foundation, a conservative think tank based in Washington, D.C., Dr. Nile Gardiner and Ms. Sally McNamara say western nations should support Kosovo's bid for statehood. Gardiner and McNamara write, "It is important at this highly volatile time that the West remains united in fully supporting Kosovo's efforts to gain complete independence from Serbia. The Western powers must stand up to any threats coming from Belgrade and Moscow and support full membership for Kosovo in the United Nations as a sovereign state."

Russia and Serbia will likely condemn the Kosovar declaration since both have adamantly opposed the move in the run-up to Sunday's announcement. Still, what actions the two might take are very much unclear. There have been threats of economic and military action, but Kosovo is currently occupied by troops from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, NATO, and is under the administration of the United Nations and the European Union. NATO and the EU have been involved in Kosovo since the 1999 Serbian war. Any action by Russia or Serbia could lead to an unwanted confrontation with the west.

In the United States, both Democratic candidates for President, Senator Barack Obama and Senator Hillary Clinton, have expressed their support for an independent Kosovo. However, a new Kosovar state would face serious challenges.

According to the Council on Foreign Relations, Kosovo's ethnic Serb minority could face violent reprisals from the newly independent Albanian majority. Writing for the Council, author Lee Hudson Teslik says, "...an exodus of Kosovo's Serbs northwards into Serbia might prompt additional ethnic fighting." All parties will likely seek to minimize the violence, while figuring out the best way forward for a newly independent Kosovo.

Sources: Heritage Foundation, CFR