Life on a Planet Far, Far Away...What Are the Odds?

OK, I'll admit it, I love new science discoveries...particularly those that take place in the heavens (the last frontier and all). Space is one of the only (admitted to ) places or subjects left that we as humans don't already now everything there is to know about. I've been hoping for an alien discovery since I was a kid and have (quietly) been rooting for SETI for a long time too. Space is still so full on wonder, grandeur and great uncertainty...of great theories...the place to go if "what if" scenarios are your thing. It's been wonderful that we have been looking (listening) for life "out there" for quite a while now...and more recently, because of technological advances, we have turned to look for places where other life might even dwell. In the process of the last ten to fifteen years of hard looking, we have even discovered some stars with planets orbiting them. So far, however, we have (supposedly) only found stars with planets either too hot or too cold or too big (as in gas giants) falling around them...over 200 of them in fact. Until now.

Scientist have again (supposedly) found a rocky body planet orbiting the star called Gliese 581 and subsequently cleverly named it Gliese 581C. This is the third planet find around this same star. I applaud them for the discovery of yet another planet orbiting this star...especially since at least two other planets (581B and 581D - and both of much greater size) also have influence over Gliese 581. Being able to precisely pick out a wobble in the stars axis of rotation of just a few meters per second, at a distance of 20.5 light-years and within the wobble generating influence of planets A and B, is quite a feat. I wonder how many 13 day orbiting cycles (a year up there) they actually "viewed" before they decided that there had to been another planet pulling at the star's apron strings? Anyway, well done...I guess!

Now keep in mind that the planet has not been directly sensed in any "sense" of the word...much less actually seen. The mere presence of the planet is actually pure speculation based on yet another small wobble found in the axis of the host star. Yet the headlines read: "Most Earth-like planet known to man discovered" and "Life on the new Planet?" or "New Planet Could Have Life" or...well, you get the idea. The scientists just had to go public with this one...could not keep it to themselves a minute longer. And the media...well the media picked it up so fast they almost forgot about the global warming crusade for a few minutes. Life on another planet...what could be bigger news (well, perhaps except for the current exploits of Britney Spears).
If you had read just about any of the many articles that came out concerning this "find, " you may have picked up on the liberal use of "hedge words" sprinkled throughout. Adverbs reined the day with words like "could," "nearly," and "virtually" ("could," if you are curious, was the hands down winner) mixed with a few others like "maybe," "perhaps," and "possibly." Still, the stories were nearly all written as if Earth's somewhat bloated twin was in fact found...around a star far, far away for sure, but found all the same.

To me what is truly amazing is that a possible rocky or watery (non-gaseous) planet may have been found orbiting another star...period. But instead of just going with that (and that in itself is pure speculation...based on planetary formation models), they (the scientists and/or media) had to add "earth-like" and "life" into the equation in order to sell it to the public. At least Al Gore and other politicians have not, as of yet, decided to adopt this hypothesis as fact and tried to sell it to the public through fear mongering ("If we don't do something NOW...our children's children's children's children's children will be doomed from the impending invasion that current invasion models are predicting!") Has anyone double checked their data or results yet? SETI looked at this star's system a couple of times in the past and found nothing of concern...not that that necessarily means anything. Already though, people are willing to attach monetary significance to this "find"...as the odds makers in Europe dropped the chances of finding extraterrestrial life from 1000 : 1 to 100 : 1. Now that's significant!

Let's look at all this a little bit closer. First of all, we must question the precision of the "experiment" in the first place since it's accuracy won't be know for a very long time (until either we are able to travel to Gliese 581 or "they" are able to travel here). Just how repeatable is the data and what is the range of possible conclusions? Do ANY of the results have the planet, if there is one, lie outside of the orbit needed for life around this rather cool star (sort of an ensemble approach to the modeling)? The whole speculation of the planet's Earth-like qualities are based upon the possible presence of liquid water...which in turn is being based solely on its potential mean temperature...which has been possibly determined to be in the range of 0 to 40 degrees Centigrade...which is based on the planet's relative orbit distance from its sun...which has perhaps been determined from the minute wobble detected in the parent sun from a 3.6 meter telescope located approximately 120,000,000,000,000 miles from that particular star (and under the Earth's atmosphere which is not at all helpful when trying to measure things outside of it)...and all between the wobbles generated by the other two larger gaseous planets supposedly found orbiting this same star a while back. Even the mass of the new planet is determined from the effects of the "known" mass of 581B together with the "known" mass of 581D! What would happen to all of their masses if yet another planet if found? What is the actual probability is that there is a rocky or watery planet there at all...and based on that, what is the probability of a rocky or watery planet that is about 1.5 times as big as the Earth and 5 times heavier? Just the likelihood...that's all. And then based on that assumption, what is the actual chance that it lies within the range of a life giving orbit...and what are the odds that water in quantity is to be found there...and what does it mean to the chances, if all the rest have some remote possibility, that the mean temperature lies on the low end at 0 degrees C...or at the upper at 40 degrees C? And these are just a few of the statistical questions that need to be answered...then multiplied together to find that actual likelihood that any of this is even slightly true...but you see where I am headed with this (I'm betting that the odds would actually be less than 1000 : 1). On top of all this hypothetical speculation, there is additional conjecture that due to the planet's possible proximity (say that ten times fast) to the mother star Gliese 581 and its speed of orbit, that the planet is tidally locked in orbit, much as our moon is around the Earth, so the same side of Gliese 581C always faces the sun (and the other side the dark of space). If that's the case, the prospect of life zones being present...even under the best of conditions...should go way down (the odds of finding extraterrestrial life on Gliese 581C should go well over 1000 : 1).

My guess - the researchers are running out of time and grant money and are looking for a way to extend their future. OK, but why don't they try to VERIFY the presence of a probable rocky or watery planet lying somewhere within the orbits of two much larger probable gaseous planets that are all revolving around the star Gliese 581, 20.5 light-years away...and that's all? Because, good science for the sake of good science is not enough anymore. You have to have something to sell...a "product"...something that is worth something to someone and not just for the sake of learning...you have to be able to attach actual dollar amounts to the hypothesis or you will NEVER be able to support it no matter how good the science is. If, however, you have a horrible idea or bad hypothesis but the potential profit from such an idea is potentially large, then you can support your hunch for a very long time, regardless of the quality of your results...what a deal. I see what the scientists are doing and even sympathize with them a bit (after all, I'm a scientist too), but in the end this is just another form of a publicity stunt and nothing more...aka, bad/good science (or good/bad science if you prefer). Won't they look completely foolish when in a few hundred years we finally reach close to the technological apex we need to get to in order to travel to Gliese 581..and find either nothing, or an asteroid field, or a dense planet of all rock and no water about half the size of Earth, or...

So what should we do now? Spend a few more million on aiming our dishes out towards Gliese 581 and bombarding it with reruns of American Idol or Storm Stories in the hopes that we will in 40 some years get a reply (or a review..."Great stuff, but we think that Haley Scarnato should have won...she was hot!)? How much more time and money should be allowed on this "discovery"...there really should be a time or money limit imposed...before the word "WAISTED" is stamped before the words "time" and "money." What if (now the fun begins) we eventually get there and find out that yes, there is life...but it's a pile of living goo and we can't really hold a conversation with it...even with our newly invented universal translator. Knowing us humans, we will try to bring it back. Upon return, we will find that it thrives here on Earth and decides to take permanent residence. It grows, divides, divides (eating and having sex somewhere between the growing and dividing)...eventually taking over the world (we as it turns out are no match for any of its appetites)! A new world eventually evolves from this vigorous primordial blob only to be taken over by another space race of some kind...just before the Sun dies, becomes a red giant and completely envelopes and incinerates the Earth. The new life it seems didn't have enough time to evolve to a point where space travel was an option it seems...an so all traces of once was are gone forever at least on a sensible level...I suppose we would all be out there in space at the atomic level...but all of Earth's history would be gone. Or, what if...(there are an infinite number of possibilities...and right now they are all plausible, no matter how improbable they may be). So just how sure are we that there is (possibly) life on a planet that we don't even know actually exists...at least in the form that would give it life? I'm giving it a trillion to one shot.