Live Coverage of the Pennsylvania Democratic Primary

Tide Turns for Clinton
4/22, 11:15 p.m. Eastern Time

Results we have so far indicate that Clinton has won at least 80 of the 158 delegates Tuesday's contest in Pennsylvania, according to The Associated Press. Sen. Obama has won at least 66 delegates. There are 12 more delegates to be awarded. The final tally may come in only after Wednesday. Clinton enjoys a 10% lead over Obama in the popular vote.

Clinton cut into Obama's white-collar, educated voter base and white-men voter base. This has catapulted her to a significant victory. The recent ABC debate also seems to have worked to her advantage. Fox News reports that her resounding victory has resonated well with her old and new supporters alike. She has received $2.5 million in new donations since yesterday! Now she has the money and momentum to march ahead.

Obama's delegate leads is still significant. But to keep the super-delegates interested the pressure is on him to win Indiana and North Caroilina with big margins.

Clinton leads by a Wide Margin
4/22, 11:15 p.m. Eastern Time

As of 11:15 p.m. ET, 88% of the precincts are reporting and Clinton has a 10% lead over Obama. According to Fox News, this maps to a gain of approximately 15 delegates for Clinton. The exact delegate lead will be known only after ballot counting is complete. This is because the Democratic primary process allocates delegates to congressional districts based on the voter turnout in that region in past elections. Philadelphia and its suburbs have more delegates than the rural areas of the state. The candidates will be awarded delegates proportional to the percentage of votes they receive in each region.

Obama Starts Campaigning in Indiana
4/22, 11:00 p.m. Eastern Time

Obama has begun campaigning in Evansville, Indiana soon after the Pennsylvania Polls closed. In his address to his supporters, he congratulated Clinton for her victory in Pennsylvania. He asked Indiana voters to look beyond the politics of cheap shots and bickering that have eclipsed the election campaign. He reminded the audience of his judgement on Iraq and policies on the economy and tax-cuts. He also criticized McCain's policies. As always he looked calm, composed and undeterred by his defeat in Pennsylvania - a stark contrast to Clinton's aggressive spirit. His speech was inspiring and left the crowds charged and excited.

Polling data indicates that Clinton leads Obama by a small margin of about 2%. With the monetary backup that Obama has, he should be able to close the gap and win the state in the Democratic Primary scheduled for May 6, 2008. If he fails to achieve this with his funding advantage, super-delegates may view Clinton as a stronger candidate.

Clinton's Victory Speech
4/22, 10:40 p.m. Eastern Time

Clinton addressed an excited and cheerful audience with a short but crisp speech. She talked about her policies on health-care, keeping jobs in the US and bringing the economy back on track. She came across confident and determined.

At this time, according to Fox News, 75% of the precincts are reporting and Clinton is holding a comfortable 8% lead over Obama.

Popular Votes May Boost Cinton's Chances
4/22, 10:20 p.m. Eastern Time

All major television news channels are analyzing the prospect of Clinton arguing that she has a popular vote count that is comparable to Obama's, that she has won the large states that are key to the victory of Democrats in the Presidential election and that she has done this on a budget much smaller than Obama's. Television anchors and guest speakers think that this argument might get support from super-delegates. This could boost Clinton' chances for nomination while stretching the indecision all the way through to the Democratic convention in late August 2008.

If super-delegates are to decide on the nominee, there is also the fear of backlash against the Democratic party from the voters for disregarding their votes. There is also the prospect that a protracted race will not let the party unite in time for its final fight against Republican nominee McCain. This could turn away many young voters from the Democratic party-base.

Clinton Leads by a Significant Margin
4/22, 9:45 p.m. Eastern Time

About 33% of the precincts are currently reporting. Clinton has 54% of the votes and a strong lead of 8% over Obama. The final results will determine how comfortably placed Clinton will be to convince super-delegates to back her.

Obama Needs to Connect to Blue Collar Workers
4/22, 9:30 p.m. Eastern Time

Throughout this Democratic election season, a majority of blue-collar workers have supported Clinton. Obama has not been able to cut into this base of Clinton. In Pennsylvania this group forms a huge percentage of the voters and has delivered Clinton a clear victory. To fight a renewed Clinton camp, Obama must look back to see why his campaign has not clicked with this class.

In the last debate moderated by ABC, Clinton came out strong and firm. MSNBC polls indicate that this influenced many undecided voters to vote in her favor. Her sharp and negative attacks have in fact boosted her popularity. If Obama wants to come out stronger and keep his super-delegates and his lead, he needs to project toughness and a good grasp the present economic situation which is the primary concern of our blue-collar working class.

Momentum building in Clinton Camp
4/22, 9:15 p.m. Eastern Time

Clinton's win in Pennsylvania is a big morale booster for her party and will propel her camp to fight in the race with a renewed momentum. Her camp has been lagging in funds behind Obama's by several million dollars. She has won Pennsylvania despite the funding handicap. She now has a case to appeal to super-delegates to support her candidacy. She will also be in a better situation to raise funds going forth.

Clinton supporters are waiting for her to make a victory speech tonight.

Clinton is Projected Winner
4/22, 8:45 p.m. Eastern Time

Ballot results are beginning to come in. Early results show Clinton in a significant lead over Obama. Fox News projects that Clinton wins in Pennsylvania based on a combination of ballot poll count and exit poll data. Clinton seems to be doing very well in Philadelphia and its suburbs which are areas considered to be Obama's stronghold. Jewish voters in these areas are believed to be the source of her strength in these districts.

Polls Close in Pennsylvania
4/22, 8:10 p.m. Eastern Time

Polls have closed in Pennsylvania and counting has begun. CNN and MSNBC report that the race is competitive and they cannot project a winner based on the exit polls. They are waiting to make the call after results from ballot counting start coming in. Obama has already left for Indiana while Clinton is staying back in Pennsylvania to celebrate an anticipated victory.

Exit polls from Fox News show that 55% of white men voted for Clinton. She has received stronger backing from this base in Pennsylvania than in the other state. In the group of people aged below 30, Obama has 58% support. Their data also indicates that if Obama wins the nomination, 19% of Clinton backers plan not to vote in the Presidential elections. 14% of voters in the state believe that health-care is the most important issue and this group largely backs Clinton. Surprisingly, Clinton gets support from 54% of people for honesty and trustworthiness.

Based on polling data, MSNBC projects that Clinton's net delegate gain from this election can be at most about 16 delegates even in the best case where Clinton beats Obama by 10-12%. This will shrink Obama's current lead of 144 delegates but will leave him ahead in the race by a comfortable margin.

Governer Ed Rendell: Clinton stands a Good Chance
4/22, 7:30 p.m. Eastern Time

Governer Ed Rendell of Pennsylvania who endorsed Clinton and provided her critical support in the state's Democratic Primary thinks that a victory in Pennsylvania bolsters Clinton's chances for nomination. He argued in Chris Matthews' show on MSNBC that with this victory, her trailing popular vote count would narrow down significantly. He agrees that at the end of all Democratic primaries and caucuses, Clinton will most likely trail Obama in the delegate count. But he thinks that the super-delegates should be looking at the popular vote as a measure of electability in the Presidential elections.

He also wants to count the Florida votes to strengthen Clinton's case, This despite the fact that the state held its primary without campaigning from the candidates and all camps including Clinton's agreed not to consider Florida's votes or seat its delegates.

Trailing in PA, Obama Moves On to Indiana
4/22, 6:30 p.m. Eastern Time

Obama is flying to Indiana tonight to campaign for the Democratic Primary coming up on May 6th, 2008. In his speech given a few hours before Pennsylvania's results start coming out, he downplayed expectations for his camp from the state's primary. He also said that his camp had narrowed its losses in the Pennsylvania relative to the 20% lag at the time he started campaigning in the state in March, 2008.

However this has taken Obama's campaign several weeks of campaigning in the state and huge funds. According to MSNBC, Obama outspent Clinton by 3-to-1 in Pennsylvania. Those watching the television in Pennsylvania have seen Obama ads far outnumber Clinton's. Based on the polls, Clinton is making a case that Obama is losing despite their barrage of ads. She also reiterated her ability to win the big states. She will use these points to get support from the super-delegates.

She is also pushing to seat the delegates from Michigan and Florida. However this seems highly unlikely considering that the Democratic party has a divided opinion on the issue. In the meantime, Obama moves on with his campaign while staying ahead in the race.

Early Exit Poll Results
4/22, 5:40 p.m. Eastern Time

CNN's early exit poll results indicate that about 14% of the voters are newly registered Democrats. 60% of these new voters have voted for Obama. Obama is also getting 92% of the black votes. Amongst seniors, Clinton is ahead with 61% of votes. Amongst white male voters, 55% are Clinton supporters. 58% of voters who decided in the last few days have voted for Clinton. These numbers seem to agree well with polling data from the past. If the current trend in the exit polls continues, we can expect Clinton to come out about 9-10% ahead of Obama.

Can Clinton win the Nomination?
4/22, 4:00 p.m. Eastern Time

CNN reports on Tuesday afternoon of the Democratic Primary in Pennsylvania that Clinton is ahead by 9% in a statewide poll. This will cheer Clinton's camp. But looking ahead, let us analyze her prospects in this race.

After Pennsylvania, the two states with the most delegates at stake are North Carolina and Indiana. North Carolina's 115 delegates and Indiana's 72 delegates go up for grabs on May 6th, 2008. All other states together have 221 delegates. According to CNN estimates, 311 super-delegates are still uncommitted. Real Clear Politics' polling data shows that Obama is in a significant lead of about 15% in North Carolina. In Indiana, Clinton has a narrow lead of 2.2%.

Rasmussen reports that polls from Oregon show Obama leading with 60% of the votes. South Dakota shows Obama leading by over 10%. Clinton is significantly ahead in Kentucky and West Virginia by about 20%. Obama is yet to campaign in these states - so these numbers could change in his favor. A victory in any of these states will give each candidate only a small delegate-gain which will not significantly alter the total tally. What this indicates is that the current gap of 144 delegates that Clinton is trailing by, cannot be closed even if she wins the states poised in her favor by large margins.

The states will not sail Clinton through. Her last straw is the super-delegate vote bank. She can make the argument that she won the big states but the unfavorable funding scenario in her campaign add her woes - she not only trails Obama by several million dollars, her campaign is also running in debt. So a stellar performance in Pennsylvania may not win her the nomination.

Undecided Voters May Decide The Outcome
4/22, 1:40 p.m. Eastern Time

Both candidates are anxiously anticipating the undecided voters to back them. Obama has admitted that he will lose to Clinton in Pennsylvania. His sole aim in this election is to narrow the margin by which Clinton wins so that he can keep his delegate lead. MSNBC reports that most of the newly registered Democrats in Pennsylvania support Obama. On the other hand, Clinton's campaign funds have dried up. She needs to score a decisive win of at least 10 percentage points over Obama to convince her financiers and the Democratic super-delegates to keep the race going.

According to latest polling data from MSNBC, Clinton is expected to get 49% of the vote and Obama is expected to take 43%. About 8% of voters are still undecided - these voters can give Clinton a double digit lead or they can close the gap by which Obama trails Clinton. So, with last minute campaigning, both candidates are trying very hard to woo the undecided voters to their side. There is also some speculation according to CNN and MSNBC that a sizable portion of the undecided voters may not come out to vote.

What Voters in Montgomery County, PA are Saying
4/22, 12:40 p.m. Eastern Time

Montgomery County in Pennsylvania is a relatively upscale area near Philadlphia with a large number of educated and white-collar workers. Here, a lot of voters are very excited that this election year, they will have a decisive say in picking the Democratic Presidential candidate. CNN projects that Obama is expected to do well in this county, in Philadelphia and neighboring suburbs. Resonating with this projection is the fact that a majority of people I spoke to from Montgomery county are enthusiastic Obama supporters. Most supporters have also donated to his campaign.

Strong backing for Obama in this region is no surprise as the educated white-collar base has given him solid support throughout the campaign. In my opinion, another reason is that the Obama camp appeared to connect better with the voters than the Clinton camp throughout the campaign season in this state - Obama camp sent out periodic emails and updated people with the latest news and Obama's views on key issues affecting the common man.

Polling Begins In Pennsylvania
4/22, 7:40 a.m. Eastern Time

Polling began at 7:00 am ET on Tuesday morning in Pennsylvania. This is a closed Democratic Primary where only registered Democrats can vote. A record turnout is expected at the polling stations all through the day. According to AHN news, 55-60% of Democrats are expected to vote today. 150,000 new Democratic voters have been registered this year. Polls close at 8:00 pm ET. By Tuesday night we will have an estimate of the candidates' share of the popular vote share but the exact delegate allocation may not be available until all the ballots are counted.

Candidates' Last Address Prior to the Democratic Primary
4/21, 11:40 p.m. Eastern Time

Clinton made her pitch to audiences in Philadelphia earlier Monday while Obama addressed crowds in Pittsburgh. Based on CNN and MSNBC news reports, both candidates made their usual speeches.

Clinton also appeared on the Larry King Live show where she reiterated that in the event that Obama wins the Democratic nomination, she and Bill Clinton would campaign for Obama in the presidential elections -- a reassurance that Democrats have been wanting to hear. Obama appeared on Jon Stewart's show on Comedy Central. Both candidates have spared no efforts in getting publicity until the last moment in a move to influence undecided voters.

Viewers can see a slew of ads on the television from the Obama campaign -- a clear indication of how he is putting to use the funds his camp has raised. His ads far outnumber Clinton's ads. During three hours at prime time on the popular news channels, I saw at least 4 ads from Obama but only 1 from Clinton.

Tomorrow's results will speak to the efficiency of these ad campaigns. Obama will head to Indiana to campaign after tomorrow's elections in Pennsylvania. Clinton plans to stay back in Pennsylvania tomorrow and celebrate what looks to be a victory.

Awaiting the Final Showdown
4/21, 8:47 p.m. Eastern Time

Pennsylvania is getting ready for Tuesday's Democratic Primary, which is one of the most critical primaries in the recent times. It has the potential to determine the destiny of the contesting candidates -- Obama and Clinton. Obama has a small but significant lead over Clinton in the delegate count and popular vote. But the Clinton camp has reasons to cheer; Clinton was widely acclaimed after beating Obama in last week's debate, and Clinton is poised to beat Obama in Pennsylvania, according to recent polling data. But the Obama camp also has reasons to stay calm because it has had robust fund-raising. It has raised $41 million in March alone and is flush with funds collected earlier this year while the Clinton camp is in the negative, with a debt of about $10 million.

Both candidates have been campaigning vigorously in the state for the last 5 to 6 weeks. After the slew of accusations, the candidates are exchanging final blows via ads before the showdown tomorrow. Clinton's latest ad features herself as the best candidate equipped to tackle threats like Osama bin Laden. The Obama camp has angrily responded with an ad questioning Clinton's judgment on the Iraq war and her fear-mongering politics.

All in all, the next 24 hours are going to be important, exciting and decisive in shaping up the nation's future. This blog will provide live coverage of news on the Pennsylvania Democratic Primary.

On Monday night, Clinton will appear at 9 p.m. Eastern Time on Larry King Live. And Obama will appear on Jon Stewart's show at 11 p.m. Do not miss these shows!