Looking Ahead, the 2010 Mid-Term Elections

The 2010 Mid-Term elections represent a challenge to Democratic leadership to maintain majorities in both Houses of Congress, as well as an opportunity for Republicans to gain seats and set the tone for 2012. Don't expect to see any monumental changes, since it is highly unlikely Republicans will be able to garner enough support to take control of either House, however don't underestimate the importance of the election. A number of key seats are up for grabs in a contest that will be billed as a referendum on President Obama's first two years in office.

House Races
Currently, Democrats have a 79 member majority in the House. In an early analysis, there looks to be, at least, five races where Republicans have a decent shot in defeating incumbent Democrats, netting them a ten-seat swing. If the Democrats are success in preserving these seats from a Republican take over, they also have four key races where they could potentially gain seats, netting them an eight-seat swing.
Democrats in Trouble
Walter Minnick, Idaho 1st-The Freshmen Democrat only received 51% of the vote in 2008, due in large part to the Conservative nature of his district. Minnick has been careful to distance himself from his Democratic colleagues in the House, giving him a solid platform that coincides with the political makeup of his district, but expect Republicans to invest a lot of time and energy into reclaiming a district they did not expect to lose last time around.
Frank Kratovil, Maryland 1st-Another Freshmen Democrat who has attempted to maintain a legislative record favorable to a predominantly Conservative district. However, Kratovil has received backlash from constituents on Health Care reform, including one group taking it upon themselves to display an effigy of the Congressmen. His vote on reform may well turn out to be the determinate factor for moderate voters between him and Republican challenger Andy Harris.
Bobby Bright, Alabama 2nd-A third Freshmen Congress facing the heat in a traditionally Conservative district. At the beginning of summer it looked as if Bright might dodge the reelection issue completely and take a stab at the Governor's office, but he has since ruled that out preferring instead to maintain his seat in Congress. He will face tough opposition though in a southern state that is not overly sympathetic to liberal policy.
Harry Teague, New Mexico 2nd-Teague, another freshmen, faces his biggest trouble with his vote on the recent climate change bill. The Congressmen voted in favor of the plan, which has been characterized heavily in New Mexico as harming the state's energy market.
Scott Murphy, New York 20th-This is a district that has not garnered much attention in recent months, but it should. Murphy won a highly contested special election in March to fill the vacant seat of Kirsten Gillibrand, who left to take Hillary Clinton's Senate seat. One only look at the recent history of the district to know that it many turn into a highly contested race; Gillibrand, when she ran for the first time in 2006, was a young Democrat who won due in large part to allegations against her Republican opponent that he was engaged in domestic violence. Fast forward to 2009 and Murphy wins the district over his Republican opponent Jim Tedisco by only 400 votes. While Murphy seems popular with his new constituency, anyone calling this a safe seat for the Democrats is fooling themselves.
Republicans in Trouble
Joseph Cao, Louisiana 2nd-Being a Republican in a district that hasn't elected anyone besides a Democrat since 1891 isn't easy. This is particularly true for Representative Cao, who was the bearer of good fortune in 2008 when his opponent and incumbent William Jefferson was indicted on Federal corruption charges. Cao faces an uphill battle convincing his district that he represents their mostly liberal views. He has done well so far, announcing he at least partially supports the House bill overhauling Health Care, but Democrats are likely to regain the seat, so long as their candidate keeps their nose clean.
New York 23rd-The district is currently occupied by Republican John McHugh who has recently been tapped by President Obama to become Secretary of the Army. No doubt this was a strategic move by the administration. Obama won the popular vote total in the 23rd during the Presidential election, opening the possibility that many in the district share Democratic views. However, McHugh was a long time incumbent who showed no signs of being elected out. Obama's promotion of McHugh resets the playing field and opens a strong possibly for a Democrat to take the seat.
Illinois 10th-The seat is being vacated by Mark Kirk, a Republican who is leaving to challenge for Barack Obama's old Senate seat. The Republicans have a good candidate in Beth Coulson but Democrats will most likely be able to catch on the coattail of Obama's success and challenge for the district.
Michele Bachmann, Minnesota 6th-Bachmann, to this point, is in a relatively safe Republican district with some very die-hard supporters. However, her consistent Neo-Conservative rhetoric may be beginning to catch up with her. She has become a rallying cry on liberal sites nationwide for many of her somewhat outlandish statements. You can expect the DNC to invest a lot of time and energy in explaining to the people of her district why her views on homosexuality, the census, and foreign policy do not fit their idea of progress.

Senate Races
Don't expect much of a swing in the Senate in 2010. The Democrats have a few troublesome races to deal with, and may lose up to two seats, but the likely result when all is said and done is that they will remain at sixty.
Democrats in Trouble
Chris Dodd, Connecticut-Being a veteran Senator and a one time Presidential candidate should spell success for Senator Dodd. However, his popularity has shrunk in recent months, due in part to allegations that he received special treatment from lending companies while at the same time presiding over the Senate committee charged with overseeing the housing market crash. If Dodd runs, he will almost certainly lose. However, early projections suggest that he will choose to retire and allow one of Connecticut's up and comers to run for the seat in the liberal leaning state.
Illinois-The seat previously occupied by President Obama should also be a slam dunk for the Democrats. Unfortunately for them, the seat is now more tied with Roland Burris and Rod Blagojevich than most of the leadership would like. Compound that with the fact that Republicans have been championing Congressmen Mark Kirk for months now, and it would appear that a Republican take over is possible. Expect President Obama to spend some quality time in his former state in an attempt to maintain control over the seat.
Harry Reid, Nevada-The Senate Majority Leader is highly unlikely to lose reelection in 2010, however as to the question of who the mid-term election is most important for, it may be him. His popularity has decreased exponentially in the last year, both in Nevada and nationwide, due to what many on both sides consider ineffective leadership. Reid should look forward to a tough campaign, which will be seen as a referendum on Democratic policy.
Republicans in Trouble
Kentucky-Incumbent Jim Bunning was looking toward an uphill battle to reclaim his seat for another term. However, the baseball Hall of Famer recently decided to call it quits, following mounting pressure from his own party to step aside. The race now would appear to be wide open. The state is Conservative for sure but with the playing field leveled, in terms of candidates, it may be the best shot the Dems have to increase their majority.
Missouri-Another empty seat, this one vacated by Kit Bond. This race may be determined more on the production of the Junior Senator of Missouri, Democrat Claire McCaskill, than anything else. McCaskill was elected in 2006 and has since had to consistently defend Democratic policies to Right leaning constituents. She has had some heated town hall meetings in the last month, with it still unclear where she will come down in the health care debate. If she is seen as towing the party line, it is unlikely Missouri voters will be inclined to elect another Democrat. If, on the other hand, she maintains her Blue Dog persona, a good challenger for the empty seat could give the Dems a victory.

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