Loose Russian Suitcase Nukes: Fact or Fiction?

In the years following the dismantling of the former Soviet Union, there has been a growing concern over the security of that former nation's stockpile of nuclear weapons and materials, most of which lie in Russia. Of primary concern is the possibility of these materials making their way into the hands of a rogue nation or terrorist organization. One of the more controversial topics regarding the issue is the subject of a live nuclear weapon contained in a small, portable container, commonly known as a suitcase nuke. While many claim that there are many unaccounted for bombs of this size and caliber, other parties firmly deny that suitcase nukes were ever even produced.

The possibility of rogue nations developing nuclear weapons is a distressing burden, but the problem of suitcase nukes is even more alarming because they neutralize what kept each party in check during the Cold War. The deterrent factor of mutually assured destruction meant that neither the United States nor the Soviet Union could launch a nuclear attack without assuring their own obliteration. However, a loosely knit terrorist organization could perform a nuclear attack with a suitcase nuke without fear of reprisal due their stateless status and fundamentalist foot soldiers who are willing to sacrifice themselves.

Neither the United States nor the Soviet Union admits to producing suitcase sized nuclear weapons, although there is widespread speculation that they had the capability of doing so. Many watchdog groups and media outlets have produced evidence that both nations have produced suitcase nukes, and a former Russian leader spoke openly of such lost weapons in an interview on 60 Minutes. Official responses have been firm and swift: there has never been a program to develop nuclear weapons of this size by either country. Many journalists and insiders speculate that the story of suitcase nukes arose out of general fear mongering or to generate blackmarket interest in a sale of bogus materials.

While there continues to be debate as to the real facts regarding Russian suitcase nukes, more reputable voices agree that the real threat comes from a much less sophisticated weapon, the dirty bomb. A true suitcase nuke would contain a live nuclear weapon that had been crafted by Soviet engineers at the height of nuclear war, but a dirty bomb could be constructed by a less advanced organization out of simpler materials acquired on the black market. Few dismiss the threat of a dirty bomb attack, and such a threat negates the concept of nuclear deterrence in exactly the same way as loose suitcase nukes.

Sources:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suitcase_nukehttp://www.military.com/NewContent/0,13190,Hayden_072204,00.htmlhttp://warofillusions.wordpress.com/2009/05/25/the-myth-of-suitcase-nukes-exposed/