Losing Mexico

Could Mexico turn into a failed state? It may be happening before our very eyes. The media, the President nor the Secretary of State are talking about it or focusing on it any serious way. But the threat of a major calamity on our border is real and exists.

Mexico's on going saga with the drug cartels has taken a violent turn last year as over 6,200 people died in drug related deaths. At the pace this year, that number will easy surpass 10,000. The Mexican police are unable to match the cartels in money or weaponry. And in all frankness, the Mexican police are themselves corrupt, and often incompetent. Mexico is increasing the army presence in border cities such a Juarez in a bid to tone down the violence. But the Mexican Army has a rough reputation, and is often accused of violence against the public as well, and is not the most trusted organization in the country.

The problem for the U.S. is that it is border areas that are feeling the effects the most. Chihuahua, a border state, has heavily armed drug gangs who challenge authorities even while they fight one another for control of smuggling routes to the United States. In Ciudad Juarez, the state's deadliest spot, officials said they were taking seriously banners posted Sunday that threatened Mayor Jose Reyes Ferriz; other mayors have been assasinated. They stepped up security but said the threats would not alter Reyes' plans to clean up the corruption-laden police department. The fear has increased so much that President Jose Caulderon on Friday came out and stated that Mexico was not losing the drug war to the cartels.

How bad is it? The Penatagon is drawing up contigency plans in case the country falls into disarray. It is preparing for worst case scenarios, obviously. But still, predictions of large scale population immigration, gun violence crossing the border, and large scale homelessness and starvation is pretty scary. Forget the Pentagon predictions: Journalists in Mexico report of feeling as if they are in a war zone. The State Department put out an official warning to tourists to Mexico ahead of the Spring Break time.

The only parallel to the Mexican crisis would be Columbia over the past two decades. Cartels there, like in Mexico, retaliated against the government in a bid to weaken central control. In Mexico, it is starting to work. There have been assasinations of anti-drug officials, attempted assasination of governors, and numerous torture killings of police and soldiers. Of course, in Columbia over 20,000 people have died over course of the 'war'.

The U.S. g0vernment and Pentagon are already making moves to try to help Mexico. Military advisors are training the Mexicans in urban combat. They are considering increasing arms shipments. But as the violence continues, American who regularly crossed the border previously have been caught in the crossfire, from Cancun to Juarez. And some of the violence is slowly starting to filter over the border. As the U.S. goes forward, it must be prepared for the worst. And that would be a relatively failed state, not across oceans, but just across the Rio Grande.