Louisiana Resident Reacts to NOAA's 2011 Hurricane Forecast

COMMENTARY | I have lived in Baton Rouge, La., most of my life. Hurricanes are something you get used to. But then, on the other hand, when dealing with storms as harmful as Katrina was in 2005, you never get used to the devastation that occurred. Each year since Katrina hit Louisiana, I hold my breath as hurricane season approaches. I look forward to the forecasts from the experts at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), but I also dread them.

This year NOAA's Climate Prediction experts are calling for 12 to 18 named storms and saying that the 2011 hurricane season will be another very active season like 2010. Last year, residents on the Gulf coast were spared from any major hurricanes, but other regions and small islands in the Gulf of Mexico took hit after hit. It alarms me that this year's hurricane season is to be another active one, especially after living through a natural disaster like Katrina. I also think that we are more likely to be hit this year since we were spared in 2010 -- just the odds.

This fear was reinforced when I read a statement by Dr. Gerry Bell, the lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. The Times-Picayune reports Bell said, "In addition to multiple climate factors, seasonal climate models also indicate an above-normal season is likely, and even suggest we could see activity comparable to some of the active seasons since 1995."

It was 2005 when Hurricane Katrina hit southern Louisiana, which would be one of the "active seasons" mentioned above.. This is enough to make anyone who lived through that disaster cringe in horror, whether you had major damage to your personal property or not. Everyone knew someone or had relatives who lost lives and/or property from Katrina.

And yet another factor from the report from WAFB regarding the La Nina NOAA defines as:

"[A]n oceanic and atmospheric phenomenon characterized by 'cooler than normal sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific ocean that impact global weather patterns.'

"The weather phenomenon makes winter weather warmer than normal in the Southeastern U.S."

Louisiana, like most of the United States, had a much colder than usual winter in 2010. If that is any prediction that we will have a bad hurricane season, then it is going to be really bad.

I found one statement in the report from NOAA to be a bit amusing -- yet not. The quote was, "The United States was fortunate last year." Yes, the United States was fortunate last year, but other countries were not. 2010 was the second highest year of hurricane activity on record, according to WAFB News. I found that statement from Dr. Jane Lubchenco, NOAA Administration and Undersecretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere, to be a cold statement -- at least that is how it reads to me.

The average prediction of three to six major hurricanes is also quite alarming. The Times Picayune gives the range of 3-6 this season a 70 percent chance of happening, which is about 50 percent too much for me.

Sources:

Times-Picayune

WAFB News