March Madness NCAA Plays for Friday

The favorites did very well in the opening day of the NCAA tournament. That was yesterday, but I don't think the favorites will cover as often on Friday.

A couple of games jump off my bracket page today. The first game is the San Diego/Connecticut match up. The University of Connecticut looks to be a heavy favorite in this game and Vegas would like you to believe that UConn will march right over San Diego. I'm not sure I agree with the public on this contest. I don't foresee UConn losing this game outright, but I do feel this game will be close throughout.

This UConn squad isn't nearly as good as in previous years and I think they'll be over bet on reputation alone. I can see them not being entirely ready for San Diego and that may let SD hang close long enough for them to cover the double-digit number. The last line I saw was UConn by 11.5 points and I see this game ending right around that number. I say UConn by 10.

Oregon vs Mississippi St should be a very close game throughout. The last line I saw was Oregon a 2 point underdog and I looked at this game as a pick em. Oregon played very competitive this season and I was a bit surprised by the #9 ranking in the Southern Regional bracket. The 6:00 starting time helps Oregon adjust a bit to the time change and I see Oregon coming away with an outright victory this evening.

The Texas/Austin Peay match up has also caught my attention. The last line I saw had the #2 ranked Longhorns as a 15.5 point favorite and unless they come out flat, I really can't see Austin Peay staying within this number. I see Texas pulling away late in the first half and holding a 20 point lead for the rest of the way. Texas won't be hard pressed in either this match up or the next (vs the winner of Miami/St Mary's) so look for the starters to play quite a bit before giving way to the reserves. Texas by 17 points or more.

The last game that caught my eye and perhaps the best play of the day, is in the Butler/South Alabama game. In my early bracket sheets, I selected So Alabama to pull the minor upset. I had been expecting a line of 6 -6.5 on this game. With the line set at 4.5, I believe Butler should cover this game quite easily. Butler won't run away with this game, but they will control the tempo of the game and I can see them holding a 7 or 8 point game throughout and winning by at least that number.

I don't think we will see any major shockers today. I expect Texas to win handily and UConn to struggle just a bit. My top plays for today vs the Vegas line would be Butler, followed by Oregon. Lay the points with Butler and take what Vegas offers Oregon.

Enjoy the games!