March Madness- NCAA Selections for Sunday 3/23

Once again the March Madness tourney has provided shocks and surprises for the public. Yesterday a few teams that were very heavily played in the bracket pools and bet on, in Vegas, went down to defeat. Teams like the vaunted UCLA Bruins, narrowly escaped defeat, while public favorites like Pittsburgh, and Duke bowed out of the tourney with losses.

I usually like to go against the favorites in these tournaments. Vegas will often add points the line on teams with a large public following. For the most part, just getting to this tournament is a big indicator of a quality team. Yes, there are pretenders, like Coppin St or Georgia and those teams are usually exposed for what they are in the first round...Pretenders!

Most, if not all of the pretenders are usually on their way home once the second round begins. When Vegas adds extra points to the line on teams with a huge public backing, these games should standout as big betting opportunities. Today I'm suggesting plays on two of the more popular squads remaining in the tourney... Texas and Georgetown.

The Texas/Miami match up looks like a clear mismatch. In this case the U of Miami does have a following, but in basketball, it's not nearly as large as the #2 ranked Texas squad. Texas clearly has the superior starting unit and tournament experience. Texas has an additional height advantage versus the younger and very green Miami team. With a line in the 7 point range, I think Texas should easily cover this line and expect the Longhorns to roll right past Miami and keep this game in double-digits throughout much of the 2nd half. The play here is on Texas.

The Davidson/Georgetown game is also very intriguing. The last line I found was the Hoyas rated a 5.5 point favorite and it's a questionable line in my opinion. I was expecting a 7 point line. Unless Georgetown has an injury that hasn't been made public, this line looks a bit too low. So now, the question is... has Vegas set a line to low and set a "trap" or has the betting public caught onto the "dogs are barking " theory and expects Georgetown to be looking ahead to facing Wisconsin.

Davidson isn't a bad team and they will put up a decent fight, but in the end the Hoyas should pull away with a cover victory. Lay the points in both games and I expect both Texas and Georgetown to play "statement" games today. Lay the points with Texas and Georgetown!

Enjoy the games!