Mark Warner Should Reconsider a Run for President in 2008

I was very disappointed when Mark Warner, the former Governor of Virginia, officially announced he would not be seeking the Democratic nomination for President in 2008. Warner is charismatic, assertive, and was a strong, popular Democratic leader in a right-leaning state. For those reasons he would have made an excellent candidate. He is quoted as saying, "that which gets measured, gets done."

Hillary is on her way to bulldoze the scattered field of possible Democratic nominees. With Warner out, and no word from Al Gore, that leaves Barack Obama as Hillary's biggest threat. I know the media is obsessed with Obama. He's magnetic, an amazing speaker and would probably make a great leader. But realistically, is enough of this country willing to put an African American, one term Senator who's still relatively young in the White House? I wish the answer was yes, but let's not kid ourselves. In the primary, however, it will be a knock-down drag out fight to the finish.

If Hillary has no real opposition in the primary and wins, she has a good shot at the White House. That is, if Republicans have an idealogical meltdown and nominate someone who's dead on arrival. If John McCain or Rudy Giuliani woo conservatives and clinch the nomination, Hillary would have to rely on her war chest and possibly the best team ever assembled. The bottom line is, she's just too polarizing and people have solidified their opinions of her.

If Warner jumped back in and won the nomination, he should pick Senator Evan Bayh of Indiana (who will run for President anyway) as Vice President. Two Democrats from red states, one from the South and one from the Midwest. Both have high approval ratings due to records of accomplishment. They stand by their Democratic values without appearing to be flaming liberals, which is important. It's an unbeatable ticket in my opinion. Neither are well known on a national level, but that's okay. It allows them to shape opinions rather than work to change them, which is often seen as phony (ala Hillary moving to the center, McCain kissing up to the far right).

It is highly unlikely Warner will throw his hat back in. By remaining out, he may be putting himself on the top of many lists for Vice President.

What no one seems to be paying attention to is the coming storm on the Republican side. The party faithful vote most in the primary and that means social conservatives. That is why McCain is courting the likes of Jerry Falwell and Giuliani is glued to September 11th. Both have moderate backrounds on social issues such as abortion, gun control and gay marriage. Will conservatives buy it? We'll see. But they have the best chance of winnng because there are no charasmatic or strong conservatives in the mix. Soon to be former Senator George Allen was their best hope, but his chances were dashed after "macaca".

Bill Maher said it best, to the effect of "George Allen going down in Virginia symbolizes the end of cowboy politics. This boot wearing, guy you want to have a beer with kind of politics is over". Good riddance!