Matt Holliday or Jason Bay: Scott Boras is the Deciding Factor

Matt Holliday and Jason Bay are hot commodities on the free agent market. Although Holliday has the edge over Bay in terms of statistics and ability, the high price that Holliday's agent (Scott Boras) has placed on his services makes Bay the better overall value on the free-agent market.

Matt Holliday's Stats

2009 stats: .313 average, .909 OPS, 24 home runs, 109 RBIs, 14 stolen bases

Career stats (6 full seasons): .318 average, .932 OPS, 152 home runs, 592 RBIs, 80 stolen bases

2009 was the tale of two seasons for Matt Holliday. After hitting only .286 with an .832 OPS (on-base percentage plus slugging percentage) while playing the first two-thirds of the season with the Oakland Athletics, Holliday turned things around after being traded to the St. Louis Cardinals. Back in the National League, Holliday hit .353 with a tremendous 1.023 OPS. In addition, Holliday is known for playing strong defense in left field, although his decisive error in Game 2 of the NLDS won't have been forgotten by the time the free agent bidding begins.

Although his early career was played in Colorado, a place that has been known to drastically increase hitting statistics, Holliday's statistics in St. Louis and on the road while playing with the Rockies are still impressive enough to make him a top-flight outfielder.

Jason Bay's Stats

2009 stats: .267 average, .921 OPS, 36 home runs, 119 RBIS, 13 stolen bases

Career stats (6 full seasons): .280 average, .895 OPS, 185 home runs, 610 RBIs, 66 stolen bases

Bay is coming off a year that, depending on what you choose to focus on, is either the best of his career or simply middle-of-the-road. Bay set career highs in home runs and RBIs, yet balanced it out with a rather pedestrian .267 average and a career high in strikeouts (162).

Although he doesn't have quite as many stolen bases as Holliday has over his career, Bay's career stolen base percentage is much better than Holliday's (82.5% vs. 76.9%). Bay has also produced in one of the major media markets in professional baseball (Boston), whereas Holliday has only played in smaller markets. Although not a huge factor, big market clubs can have trepidations about signing players who have never performed under extremely tight scrutiny.

While Bay's defense is not as good as Holliday's, he is not by any means a "bad" defender . In addition, it needs to be noted that Bay is two years older than Holliday, and thus is likely to be closer to the decline phase of his career than Holliday, although it's never an exact science to figure out when a player's age will start to be a diminishing factor.

The Scott Boras Effect

Unfortunately for many teams in the market for an outfielder, Matt Holliday is represented by Scott Boras. Boras has been the mastermind behind a number of gigantic contracts, and is expecting nothing less from Holliday. In an article from ESPN.com, Boras has constantly compared Holliday to Mark Teixiera, who signed a mammoth 8-year, $180 million contract before the 2009 season. It seems very likely that Boras expects a similar contract for Holliday, putting him out of the financial reach of all but the richest teams.

Although Jason Bay will command a lot of money in free agency (possibly $15 million a season over four or five seasons), his agent is not knowing for playing hardball on the same level as Boras. Giving Bay a 5-year, $75 million contract seems much more reasonable than giving the slightly better Holliday a contract that is three years longer and will cost a team over $100 million more in the long run.

Holliday, given his age and consistent production, is probably the better player of the two. He's just not worth $100 million more than Bay, and I'd bet that every team in the league besides the Yankees will probably agree.

Resources:

Matt Holliday Stats

Jason Bay Stats

Jerry Crasnick, Agent Scott Boras: Free Agent Holliday a 'Complete Player', ESPN.com