Matt Stafford - NFL Draft Prospect

Matt Stafford is considered the top quarterback in the 2009 version of the NFL Draft by most of the talking heads. Stafford led Georgia to a 10-3 record playing through a very tough SEC schedule. According to stats on Fox Sports, Stafford passed for 3,459 yards which ranks 14^th in the country while completing 61% of his 383 passes. He threw for 25 touchdowns (tied for seventeenth) and only 10 interceptions. His passer rating for his senior season was a 154 which was tied for 14^th in the nation.

The other two quarterbacks considered to be first round talents are Mark Sanchez of USC and Josh Freeman of Kansas State. Mark had a higher passer rating, more touchdowns, and a better completion percentage while throwing 10 interceptions as well. Freeman was lower in all major categories, but is a very good athlete. Stafford and Sanchez are closely matched, but given that Sanchez in only a one year starter, Stafford gets the edge and should therefore be the first quarterback off the board.

The big question surrounding Stafford is where he will end up. The Detroit Lions have the first overall pick. They have a hodge-podge quarterback situation and though they have other needs, the new leadership will probably want a young quarterback to build around. Most likely, if they do decide on a quarterback, it will be Stafford. They will try to bargain with him and he may get a deal similar to the one Matt Ryan (the third pick last year by the Falcons) got. However, Detroit knows that junior quarterbacks typically take some development time and that there have been a lot of them that have flopped. If Detroit decides that they have bigger needs, they may select a bigger guy to fill that spot (like an offensive lineman.) Assuming that they do, Stafford will find himself in a freefall. The only question is how far that fall will go.

The second pick belongs to the St. Louis Rams. The Rams have a huge hole in the offensive line left by the departure of Orlando Pace and a solid quarterback whom they gave a large contract two years ago, so barring a trade, Stafford won't go second.

The Kansas City Chiefs pick third. This is interesting because two months ago the Chiefs would have done this pick in a heartbeat. However, after stealing Matt Cassel from the Patriots for a second round pick, they will not be spending a first round pick on Stafford.

The fourth pick is intriguing. It could be the one that prevents a big tumble. The Seattle Seahawks have this pick and could use it to draft a replacement for Matt Hasselbeck who missed most of last season with injuries (usually the first sign of aging). The Seahawks have a number of other needs they may choose to address here. There are some very talented players remaining here and so the Seahawks might pass on Stafford to improve their chances for this season as opposed to looking to the future.

The Cleveland Browns pick fifth. They already have a controversy between Derek Anderson and Brady Quinn. They might entertain trade offers should Stafford fall this far, but will pick someone else instead.

When the Cincinnati Bengals pick in the sixth spot, they will pass on Stafford. They have Carson Palmer at quarterback and much bigger needs than another highly paid QB.

The seventh pick will be the Oakland Raiders who invested heavily in the first overall pick from two years ago, JaMarcus Russell. The Raiders will pass on Stafford here.

The Jacksonville Jaguars are eighth on the board. Many talking heads seem to think they are looking for a quarterback. Only last year they extended David Garrard. With a hodge-podge line in front of him, he still put together a decent season. The Jags may try to fake interest in order to draw a trade should Stafford fall, but it would be an unwise move to give up on Garrard after last season's line troubles.

The ninth team scheduled is the Green Bay Packers. This is Aaron Rogers's team (for now) and they won't look twice at Stafford.

Number 10 to pick is the San Francisco 49ers. The 49ers are having a quarterback competition and would consider drafting a quarterback even though the last time they took a quarterback in the first round, it didn't pan out well (see Alex Smith). Stafford could very likely end up in San Francisco.

The eleventh team to pick will be the Buffalo Bills. The Bills still have some confidence in Trent Edwards. Edwards has shown improvement, but struggled the last half of last season. The Bills have bigger needs and if Stafford gets by the 49ers, he will fall to the Broncos.

At number 12 we find the Denver Broncos. With the news that they are looking to trade Jay Cutler, they may have already selected Stafford by this point, should they get a higher pick in the draft. However, if they are unable to move Cutler before the draft and Stafford is available here, they may be picking him just in case Cutler does end up holding out.

When the Washington Redskins are on the clock at number 13, Stafford will probably not be available. Should he fall this far, the Redskins will definitely give him a look and ask themselves if they really trust Jason Campbell. They will probably pass on the unproven Stafford.

The New Orleans Saints hold the 14^th pick. With Drew Brees in the backfield, the Saints aren't interested in Stafford.

The 15^th pick belongs to the Houston Texans who are confident in quarterback Matt Schaub. They have much bigger needs on defense and will pass should Stafford slide this far.

The San Diego Chargers hold the 16^th pick. Phillip Rivers is improving each season and the Chargers will pass on Stafford.

The New York Jets will pick 17^th. The chances of Stafford still being on the board at this point and the Jets not having traded up to get him are slim. If he's still on the board at this point, and the Jets still hold this spot, he will be snatched up quickly, barring some unforeseen move by the Jets (which are known for unforeseen moves in the draft).

The Chicago Bears pick in the 18^th spot. Even though Kyle Orton played well at times last season, but they would definitely give Stafford a look should the Jets miss on him.

At 19, we see the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The only way that Stafford is on the board at this point is if other teams are not impressed with him or think Sanchez or Freeman is a better option. Should Stafford still be waiting, the Buccaneers will almost certainly end his wait.

The chances of Stafford waiting for the 20^th pick are about the same as the chances that I will win the lottery (and I don't buy lottery tickets). The Detroit Lions hold his pick and if by some improbable miracle Stafford is on the board, this will be the end of the line.

It is such a sure thing that Stafford will be gone before 20 that we won't even look at the rest of the first round. Things will probably get shaken up as last year there were 8 draft day trades in the first round as well as 4 teams that made trades prior to the start of the draft. If Stafford should slide the way Brady Quinn did two years ago, someone will swoop down and snatch him up before he hits number 20. In addition, with Cutler on the market, the Broncos could be picking with one of those high picks and may completely change the order of the draft. With all the uncertainty surrounding the situation, when Matt stands up on stage and dawns his new hat, it will probably be light blue with a (newly designed) Lion on it.