McCain Has Wide Lead Over Obama in Texas Polls

A survey of the latest presidential polls in Texas shows John McCain maintaining his large lead over Democratic nominee Barack Obama among Texas voters. The latest Rasmussen Reports presidential poll in Texas has registered voters favoring McCain, giving the senator a nine-point lead over Obama, 50% to 41%. It marks the second straight month that McCain has held a nine-point lead in the poll. The poll was conducted with the help of local Fox television stations in the state. A recent poll by the University of Texas also has McCain with a nine-point lead, 42% to 33%. It is a cushion McCain has held as long as he earned the GOP nomination.

The Rasmussen presidential poll in Texas did give Obama something to be encouraged about. It marked the first time Obama has broken the 40% barrier in the poll. While Obama has seen a surge in support, McCain has also made gains. It appears the number of undecided voters has dwindled, breaking almost equally for each candidate. Independent candidate Bob Barr has pulled in about 5% for several months now, with Ralph Nader nearly a non-factor, barely able to muster 1% to 2%.

Texas has been a solid red state (Republican) in presidential contests ever since the election of Ronald Reagan in 1980. The GOP has strong voter bases in just about every major city, with the exception of Austin, as well as rural areas. Obama does well with minorities and in urban areas.

As a life-long Republican, I find in John McCain the same approach to government that I see in our major statewide elected officials (who are also Republican): a "laissez-faire" philosophy not just in economics, but on social and civic issues as well. Even in large urban areas, voters prefer their government to be less intrusive and encouraging to private ingenuity. That includes lower taxes and smaller government, both Republican strong points. National security and the War on Terror continue to resonate as important issues in presidential polls in Texas, which may also explain McCain's large lead.

The Obama campaign has little expectation that he will challenge for the state's 34 electoral votes. While Obama has chosen to focus resources on more competitive states, he has a number of major Democratic allies in the state, and has visited recently mostly for campaign fundraisers. Unless we see a major shift in the presidential polls in Texas, the state is not expected to be competitive, and GOP activists are hoping to keep voters energized and encouraged to vote, even if a Texas win is a bygone conclusion. The hope is a strong turnout of Texas Republican voters will boost McCain's national vote total.

Sources: Rasmussen Reports, The University of Texas Government Department