McCain's Electoral College Hopes Pinned on Pennsylvania

With only eight days until Election Day, John McCain's campaign is trying to find its most plausible way to 270 electoral college votes and a win in the presidential election. Clearly, as the time winds down, the competition grows more fierce and the decisions where to make campaign stops and invest money becomes that much more important.

In the past week, it has become very clear the McCain campaign has made it a point to make Pennsylvania the place where it pins hopes of a victory. At the end of last week, a McCain aide told CNN "the election hinges on Pennsylvania." That's quite a strong statement, indeed, so apparently that is why McCain and running mate Sarah Palin are spending so much time in the Keystone State in the last week of October.

Why has the McCain campaign decided it absolutely has to have Pennsylvania? Barack Obama has successfully moved several Bush states from 2004 in his direction enough that the McCain campaign has just about given up on them. Iowa, New Mexico and Colorado are the three George W. Bush states that most people believe the McCain campaign will have a very tough time winning. It isn't just these three states that are the trouble for the McCain camp, though. There are plenty more considered tossups now, and all of them went for Bush in 2004. Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Nevada, Virginia and even North Dakota and even Indiana, are hotly contested by the Obama campaign. The electoral map, with eight days to go, clearly shows McCain playing defense and Obama on offense.

It is evident the McCain campaign realizes it will lose several of the Bush states from 2004 and that it must win a Kerry state or two from 2004 to win the election. Because of its 21 electoral votes and the state's love for Hillary Clinton over Obama in the Democratic primary, the McCain campaign has decided Pennsylvania will be its last stand.

Is this a wise move? When looking at the current polls out of the Keystone state, it seems like this is a very questionable move. The latest RealClearPolitics average of the recent polls out of Pennsylvania shows Obama with a commanding lead of 11.2 percent. How can McCain make up 11.2 percent in one week? It is a question that doesn't seem to have any real answer, but many in the McCain campaign are saying their internal polls show the race closer than the public polling.

The truth of the matter is, that while making a huge stand in Pennsylvania doesn't seem like a wise choice, it seems like it is the McCain camp's only choice at this point. Where else would they try to win over electoral votes that Kerry won in 2004? Wisconsin and Minnesota seem extremely unlikely, and though a state like New Hampshire provides some opportunity, it only has four electoral votes.

The McCain campaign is drawing a line in the sand, saying it must win Pennsylvania. The chances seem very slim, but stranger things have happened in politics.