Measuring Risk when Making Fantasy Football Picks: A Fan's Take

Fantasy football continues to grow in popularity, as fans enjoy the sport by managing their own teams of carefully selected players. Some individuals put a great deal of research into their teams, while others pick randomly because they are only there for the social aspect. In order to win a fantasy league, some managers have to take some risks, as the most desirable players might be gone already. Here are a few risks that managers might need to take if they want to win their league.

Injury report

The star player that is coming off an injury can be a great example of a pick that may have a high reward if the individual stays healthy. Some managers are going to stay away from these picks, as they can spell disaster if the player ends up hurt again. A good example of this is Maurice Jones-Drew. I selected Maurice in this year's draft, despite the fact that he had knee surgery in the offseason. Knee surgery can be very tricky for a running back, so this could end up being a poor pick. However, if Jones-Drew is healthy, he could be a top-five producer. I also saw a player like Peyton Manning go a lot later than he normally would since he has had some neck issues and may not be 100%.

Contract holdouts

What about contract holdouts? Ironically, my other starting running back this year is Chris Johnson. Based on historical statistics, this pick is a no-brainer even though running backs have a short shelf life. However, Johnson is currently in a contract dispute with the Tennessee Titans, and there is no telling when he may take the field. Will Johnson or the Titans blink first, and when will that occur? Even if Johnson gets on the field for the first game of the year, will he be ready to go? The preseason has been short, but most of the league has at least had some contact and opportunity to play at full speed. This pick was a measured risk, but it could also turn out to be a very solid choice if Johnson can get on the field soon and show why he's holding out for more money.

Rookies

We love those top 10 draft picks, but we also know that plenty of these college standouts have been disasters in the NFL. Picking a rookie is tempting, particularly when they look good in practice and preseason. A good example of this is Julio Jones, the highly hyped wide receiver that was drafted by the Atlanta Falcons. Jones has a good young quarterback in Matt Ryan, and he is already drawing rave reviews from teammates and coaches. However, Julio will have to prove that he can run NFL routes and deal with professional DBs. I feel pretty good about this pick, but Jones could also be the "next big thing" that struggles in the pros.

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The author has played fantasy football in various leagues for many years. He has won several titles, and has a number of shiny trophies in his virtual case.