Mega Millions Lottery: The Best Way to Play
Part 2: Nine Top Mega Millions Strategies
Mega Millions lottery strategy #1: Only play when the jackpot is over $140,000,000
Your odds of winning the Mega Millions jackpot are vanishingly small so the payout has to be really high to be worth playing. If you hate math, you can take my word for it and skip to the next Mega Millions strategy. Otherwise, stay the course and finish reading this strategy first.
Professional statisticians use a term called "expectation value" for this. To calculate the expectation value of your Mega Millions lottery ticket purchase, multiply the value of each prize by its probability, and sum those values for all prizes. Then, subtract the probability of loss multiplied by the cost of a ticket
For the Mega Millions lottery, the total expectation value of all prizes except the jackpot is $0.18. Since the expectation value of losing is about $0.975 you need a jackpot higher than $140,000,000 to make the overall expectation value positive.
To make this mathematically accurate the Mega Millions jackpot needs to be 3 to 4 times higher to account for taxes and for the lump sum payment being much lower than the advertised annuitized jackpot. However, using strategies 5 and 8 below will offset those issues for the most part, so I'd stick with $140,000,000 as my minimal jackpot to make playing worthwhile.
Mega Millions lottery strategy #2: Concentrate your ticket purchases in higher jackpot drawings
Your odds of winning the Mega Millions jackpot are higher when you buy the same number of tickets in one drawing rather than spread over many drawings. As an extreme example, if you buy 88 million tickets in one drawing you'd have a 50% chance of winning the jackpot. Spread the same tickets over 88 million drawings and your chance of winning at least one Mega Millions jackpot is only 39%.
Though it runs counter to this strategy, there is one reason to spread your tickets over many drawings. That way you have the fun of fantasizing what you'd do if you won the Mega Millions jackpot. However, it's a better strategy to buy more tickets when the jackpot is much higher than $140,000,000, and only one or two when it is near $140,000,000.
Mega Millions lottery strategy #3: Avoid playing sets of numbers others are likely to play
If you were the only Mega Millions lottery player, you would not need to worry about this strategy. In real life however try to avoid sharing your Mega Millions jackpot if you do win.
Many people use birthdates, so numbers up to 31 are very common and numbers up to 12 even more so. Patterns such as 1, 7, 13, 19, 25, 31 where each number is greater than the previous one by the same amount are popular. Since the numbers are arranged on the Mega Millions lottery ticket in a rectangle, it is easy to make pretty patterns such as a pyramid, checkerboard, etc.
Instead of pretty patterns, strategically choose an unlikely looking set of numbers and you'll be much less likely to share your Mega Millions jackpot if you do win.
Mega Millions lottery strategy #4: Pool with family, friends, neighbors, and/or co-workers
The only strategy to increase your odds of winning the Mega Millions jackpot is by playing more combinations of numbers, but this can get very expensive. One strategy to control costs is to pool your money with people you know and trust and buy more tickets. This increases your chance of winning, though it reduces your potential payout.
Check with your state's lottery for details on how this can be done. Make sure that the sharing arrangement is enforceable. It would be a shame to discover your best friend can't be trusted when he keeps the entire Mega Millions jackpot. You'd lose millions of dollars and a friendship to boot.
Mega Millions lottery strategy #5: Keep all your losing Mega Millions lottery tickets
If you itemize your tax deductions, you can reduce taxes on your Mega Millions winnings by deducting losses. You cannot deduct gambling losses from any income except gambling winnings, but keep a positive attitude and if you do win, you can use your losing Mega Millions lottery tickets to pay less in taxes.
Mega Millions lottery strategy #6: Sign the back of your Mega Millions tickets as soon as you buy them
Mega Millions tickets are bearer instruments. If you don't sign the back of the jackpot ticket and lose it, someone else may find it and claim your prize money.
Mega Millions lottery strategy #7: Check how long your state allows for claiming Mega Millions prizes
Each state has its own time limit on claiming Mega Millions lottery prizes. These vary from 180 days to a year. Make sure you don't miss the deadline or your jackpot will be gone.
Mega Millions lottery strategy #8: If you win the Mega Millions jackpot, take the annual payments
Even if you're sure you can invest the lump sum and make more money than the annual payments, history shows that winners who take the lump sum almost inevitably become poor within a few years. In this case taking the annual payment is the better strategy.
Mega Millions jackpots are paid out over 26 years. For a $140,000,000 jackpot the annual payments are about $5,380,000. With this much money coming in each year for over a generation you can pay taxes, invest half of what's left, and with the remainder still buy almost anything you want. When the payments run out you'll continue living large off the proceeds of what you invested over the 26 years.
Mega Millions lottery strategy #9: Don't give away any of your winnings until you have time to consider it carefully
After you win a Mega Millions jackpot of $140,000,000 or more, expect to hear from all your family, friends, neighbors, old schoolmates, charities, etc. Everyone will want you to throw some their way.
If you start giving money away before making a strategic plan for how much you want to give and to whom, you may have little left for yourself. This is where taking the money in annual payments also helps. Even if you give everything away the first year, you still have another 25 annual payments to manage better.
This does not mean you should be a miser and keep it all to yourself. It does mean you should do what big charitable foundations do. Have a plan for how much to give each person and organization that knocks on your door. In fact, it may not be a bad strategy to establish a charitable foundation of your own with some of your newfound wealth and let the foundation hand out most of the money for you.
Bottom line of successful strategies for the Mega Millions lottery
Play only when the Mega Millions lottery jackpot is over $140,000,000, and buy more lottery tickets when it is much larger. Avoid sharing the Mega Millions lottery jackpot by playing unlikely "ugly" sets of numbers. Pool with others to share in more lottery tickets than you can afford on your own. Save your losing Mega Millions lottery tickets for tax deduction purposes. If you win the Mega Millions jackpot, take the annual payments, make a plan for how much to give away to whom, invest a good portion, and enjoy the rest.
Published by Opher Ganel
Researcher, teacher, photographer, storyteller. Creativity is my escape from the day-to-day. View profile
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- Playing the Mega Millions lottery is worth doing mainly when the jackpot is over $140 million.
- Though financially it's better to take the lump sum and invest it, the annual payments are safer.
- Playing ugly, unlikely seeming sets of numbers makes it less likely you'll share a jackpot.
30 Comments
Post a CommentRECAP: as a starting point, what are the odds of winning by "wheeling" only the numbers from 32 onwards?
it would seem to be well above 50/50. assuming the playing habits of the masses don't change.
[CONT'D 3 -- UGH!] ...in the current (active) round.
expectation value will be sharply higher than you imply, and the "mimimum jackpot" necessary much lower.
your calculations in tip 1 need to be adjusted.
[CONT'D] in addition to the...more subjective rules about dodging "patterns". [i would add that "catchy" numbers -- divisible by 5 or 11 (35, 40, 45, 50...and 33, 44, 55, 66...) are probably played far above average as well, so dodge those too. frankly, i am tempted to say "prime numbers 32 and up" would minimize co-winners, but i cannot state that for sure.]
you are actually DECREASING the odds of winning by dodging such a large swarth of potential numbers, but you are decreasing your OUTLAY on tickets at a far greater rate. so you will have only spent $78 million by the time you hit a $300 million prize, say, whereas one playing randomly will have spend well over $600 million.
i would like to see the numbers done out more rigorously. exactly how high does the payout need to be and what %age of the available numbers (those 32 and up combos) does one need to blanket before reaching the tipping point? (i just made up the $78 and $300 mill the
great article. your critics miss the key point that while you cannot increase the odds of "winning", per se, you can increase the odds of doing so at the best time, payout wise. that is, buying $100 mil worth of tickets to win a $60 mil prize is pointless, whereas buying $100 mil worth of tickets to win a $300 mil prize would have merit, if the odds were somehow the same.
and the only reason they CAN be the same is that others are not playing to maximum efficiency, as you stated. it is the same reason that one can make money playing poker or blackjack in vegas -- you will never beat the house, but you can beat those with lesser math.
anyway, the most important of your suggestions is to dodge numbers below 31. right away you clear out over 96% percent of these "inefficient" selections (1 - [32/56^5 * 32/46]). the article would have been better to underline this point -- state definitively "play only numbers 32 and up"...in addition to the more su
KP,
Let's say you and a friend decide to pool tickets, you each put in $1. You have just paid $1 for 2 tickets, so the probability of you winning the jackpot has just doubled. (i.e. if it was 1 in a million, it is now 1 in 500,000).
Because you pooled, if you do win, you have to split the jackpot, so your payout has just been cut in half.
2*(1/2) = 1, so your expected value does not change when pooling with other players.
I think you're missing that when you and a stranger both win the jackpot, your chances of winning the jackpot did not double, but your payout did get cut in half.
To KP, the point of playing an "ugly" set of numbers, which really just means one that few if any others are likely to play, is that it has the same exact odds of matching the winning numbers as any other set, but if nobody else plays the same set then you get the entire jackpot. If you choose a set of numbers many other people play in the same drawing and you win, so will they, but the jackpot will then be evenly split between all tied winners, so you will receive less prize money.
To AG, the expectation value is the *average* expected outcome. However it is for a single event. Since different drawings are independent statistical events, your odds of winning in any drawing are unaffected by your outcomes in previous drawings. You could interpret the expectation value as the a-priori result expected if you are planning to participate in many future drawings, as long as they all have exactly the same jackpot, the same number of tickets sold, etc. or if you look at the average result for all participants in a single drawing.
I'm a bit confused. What is the point in playing an "ugly" set of numbers to avoid sharing a winning jackpot if you are going to play in a pool? Wouldn't pooling defeat the purpose of trying to avoid sharing a jackpot?
very nice. I have just finished the section on Mathematical Expectation in my Probability & Statistics book. However, I'm a little confused. From what I read in my book, mathematical expectation is the expected outcome. So does that mean that if a person keeps playing the lottery until he/she wins the jackpot, the expected net winnings (difference between the winnings and the total expense of buying tickets) will be around a few cents? thanks
Great article, very informative.
No algorithm will improve your chances of winning. I'd like to see Guesstimate show us his so called "Bogus combinations" and explain why they are less likely to occur then any other combination. Till then, he makes himself out to be a fantastical ignoramus.