Metaphysical Questions in Historical Writing

Inspecting the metaphysical assumptions of historical writing is one way of investigating the presuppositions of a given historical writer. So as not be completely limited to the perspective of subjective bias, we must ask certain questions. Is history centered on a particular ethnicity, religion, or culture? Is history cyclical, progressive, degenerative, dialectical, purposive, anthropomorphic, evolutionary?

Many of these possibilities may be discounted based upon the answer to one persistent question. Is the universe open or closed? By open we mean that it is not reducible to strictly causal laws, and exact prediction becomes impossible. By closed we mean it is reducible to causal laws, and precise prediction would be possible. If we sufficiently understood the causal laws upon which the universe operates, could we calculate any historical outcome no matter how remote?

If so, what would that mean? It would mean that human free will could not exist because all human behavior would be the necessary result of antecedent events. Volition would be just an illusion, and moral responsibility could not be real.