Mets Update: An Excruciating End

Those of you who don't like the Mets have had a particularly enjoyable September. While many will focus on the team's epic collapse, one point that should not be forgotten is that for the Mets' dive to even have mattered, the Phillies had to go 13-4 down the stretch. And that doesn't even include their four-game sweep of the Mets at the end of August. At no other point in the 2007 season did the Phillies play as well as they did in the final two-plus weeks of the season.

The Mets finished September with a 14-14 mark, which included losing six of their last seven games at home to teams under .500, including two of three to a Marlins team that they had gone 10-5 against earlier in the season. Las Vegas would not have given odds on that finish, much less combined it with the Phillies' hot streak that was necessary for the team to miss the playoffs.

The naysayers can gloat and say how they saw this one coming a mile away. And perhaps they did. But anyone who made this prediction was banking on odds so infinitesimally small that it defied both logic and common sense. Statistically, there was a better chance of predicting a missed extra point or an outbreak of polio in your neighborhood.

Either the predictor made a deal with the devil or the victims angered the gods. I'm going with the latter. Because it wasn't just that the Mets lost the games that they did, it's how they lost them that makes one wonder if there were outside forces at work. Here's how they fared in losses the final two-plus weeks of the season:

9/14 - They have a 2-0 lead and end up losing 3-2 in 10 innings
9/15 - They have a 3-1 lead and end up losing 5-3
9/16 - They rally from a 4-1 deficit to take the lead only to lose 10-6
9/17 - They have a 4-0 lead and lose 12-4
9/18 - They have a 7-3 lead and lose 9-8
9/20 - They score 4 runs in the top of the ninth, give up 3 in the bottom of the ninth and lose 8-7 in 10 innings
9/24 - They take a 1-0 lead and lose 13-4
9/25 - They score six runs in the bottom of the ninth but lose 10-9 when Paul Lo Duca pops up with the tying run on third base.
9/26 - They have a 5-0 lead and lose 9-6.

That was nine straight losses that were each of the stomach-punch variety. The offense mostly did its job but the relief pitching opted to be an oxymoron. And for the final kick in the crotch, the bullpen pitched great in the final three losses of the season and the offense went on vacation. The bullpen allowed just two runs in its final 16 IP of the season.

WHAT WENT RIGHT: The team's collapse is going to cost David Wright the MVP Award that he earned. Except for Jake Peavy, and we know they're not going to give it to a starting pitcher, each of the other MVP candidates has at least one fatal flaw. Jimmy Rollins made a whopping 504 outs, Chase Utley and Chipper Jones missed too much time with injuries and Miguel Cabrera and Hanley Ramirez are both terrible defensively and played on a team that finished in last place. Matt Holliday has better raw numbers but only because he plays his home games in Coors Field. In neutral road parks, Wright has a substantial 52-point lead in OPS. For September, Wright was brilliant again, posting a .352/.432/.602 line.

Carlos Beltran led the club with eight home runs and 27 RBIs in September. Moises Alou established a team record with a 30-game hitting streak and put up a .402/.434/.607 line. His production at the end of the year just underscored how much his presence was missed the two-and-a-half months he was on the disabled list.

My favorite whipping boys, Lo Duca and Shawn Green, each had solid months. Lo Duca actually had nine extra-base hits and posted a .488 slugging mark. Green, finally limited to facing just right-handed pitchers for the most part, responded with a .407/.493/.576 line in 69 plate appearances.

Pedro Martinez made four starts and pitched well in each of them, going 3-1 and giving every indication that he can be pitch as well for the club as he did in 2005. Oliver Perez and Mike Pelfrey joined Martinez with three wins apiece. John Maine saved his best for last, almost pitching a no-hitter on the penultimate day of the season and keeping the Mets alive for the 162nd game of the year.

WHAT WENT WRONG: We already talked about the bullpen and its problems. The other main sore spot was Tom Glavine. Most people were thrilled that the veteran was taking the mound in the last game of the season with the division title on the line. They had memories of Game Six from the 1995 World Series, when Glavine went eight innings and gave up just one hit. But when the Mets needed him the most, Glavine responded by allowing seven runs while recording just one out. Glavine has talked about retirement and if this is his last game it will be an awful way for a Hall of Fame pitcher to go out.

Now, I'd like to update a column I wrote on the Mets in the end of March, in which I made five predictions for the club. Let's see how those have fared now that the season is over.

1. The back end of the rotation will not be a problem. John Maine and Oliver Perez each won 15 games. Mike Pelfrey pitched his best ball in September, keeping the team's playoff hopes alive. The back end of the rotation did just fine. Those who predicted the Mets would crash because they didn't sign Barry Zito were wrong.

2. No pitcher as bad as Jose Lima will start a game in 2007. The Mets had 10 starts by Brian Lawrence, Jason Vargas and Dave Williams that were Lima-esque.

3. The team will not duplicate last year's one-run record. The Mets were 4-4 in one-run games in September, bringing their season record to 22-15. Last year they were 31-16 in one-run games.

4. Carlos Delgado will enjoy a better season than his first one in Flushing. Delgado's overall numbers were pulled down by a dreadful start to the season as he recovered from off-season surgery and shook off the rust from missing most of training camp. After the All-Star break, Delgado hit .285/.375/.469 which is a higher average and on-base percentage, although a lower slugging mark than he did last year. Delgado got hit on the wrist the final game of the season and will once again spend the off-season undergoing rehab.

5. Paul Lo Duca will be dropped from the second spot in the lineup. After batting in the second spot of the order in April, Lo Duca settled into the bottom of the lineup where he belongs. For the season, just 143 of his 487 plate appearances came in the second slot. I admire his competitiveness but I look forward to seeing him hit weak pop-ups and double play balls for some other team next year.

So, three of my five pre-season predictions came true. I don't know how to count the Delgado one. It's clearly not a win but just as clearly not a loss. The only one I missed completely was the Lima level pitching.

As for the Mets, it was an extremely disappointing season. It will be interesting to see how the club handles the late-season collapse. Neither manager Willie Randolph nor pitching coach Rick Peterson should sleep soundly until the organization publicly announces their fates.

There's work to do in the off-season. They need to find a catcher to replace Lo Duca and determine if Alou and Glavine are part of the plans for the 2008 team. And they definitely need to address the bullpen. The failure of Duaner Sanchez to come back had greater implications than anyone could have imagined.