Michigan Could Show that BCS Prefers an Early Loss to Appalachian State Over a Late Loss to Ohio State

What Happens If Michigan Wins the Rest of Their Games?

Scott Schlimmer
Some have dubbed Michigan's recent football loss to Appalachian State as the biggest upset in NCAA football history, some even say college sports history. I think they're crazy, but I expected a solid Appalachian State team, who happened to win 14 games last year. Michigan, previously ranked #5, was even knocked out of the AP Top 25, an over reaction that makes the stock market look even keeled.

I'm not going to go into the debate how good (or how bad!) this Michigan football team is, but I'd like to explore an amazing possibility that applies regardless.

What happens if Michigan wins the rest of their games? Michigan could show that the BCS prefers an early loss to Appalachian State over a late loss to Ohio State.

Last year, Michigan and Ohio State met in the last game of the season, both undefeated and ranked #1 and #2. The winner was guaranteed a spot in the national championship, but the loser was likely the odd man out, since the BCS seems to prefer early losses to late losses. Michigan lost in a great game, and with their first loss was knocked out of national championship contention, passed by a 1-loss Florida team who was wise enough to lose early.

But what if Michigan had lost to Ohio State in the first game of the season? Michigan would have dropped, but after winning the rest of their games they would have had plenty of time to climb back up to #2. Even though Michigan lost late in the season, many argued that they still should have played for the National Championship. If they had lost to Ohio State early in the season, Michigan would almost certainly have been in the National Championship game.

A similar phenomenon could occur this year. If Michigan wins the rest of their games, there's a good chance they will be in the National Championship Game, despite losing to Division 1-AA Appalachian State.

I hope it happens, even if only to show how absurd the BCS is. If you only lose one game, you don't want it to be against the best team in the country late in the season. You're better off losing to a team from a lower division, in the worst upset in sports history, but early in the year. If you have to lose, lose early to Appalachian State, not late to Ohio State.

Published by Scott Schlimmer

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5 Comments

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  • Scott Schlimmer12/5/2007

    Just a sampling of guys on this year's team who were top 10's, according to Rivals: QB Chad Henne #3, RB Mike Hart #6, RB Kevin Grady #4, WR Mario Manningham #5.

  • Scott Schlimmer11/3/2007

    The loss to Oregon made this a non-issue, but Michigan won 8 in a row after that. The BCS barely dodges another one.

  • Scott Schlimmer9/5/2007

    Sorry, I should have said the #1 team in the country. The difference is minor though.

  • Kari Livingston9/4/2007

    Timothy- they aren't eligible for votes because the are not a D1A school.

    Michigan will not be in the title game. No way, no how. for all intent and purpose, their season ended Saturday.

    And this quote cracked me up:

    "If you only lose one game, you don't want it to be against the best team in the country late in the season."

    Michigan didn't lose to the best team in the country last season. They lost to an overrated OSU team that got trounced by Florida. The Big Ten is not the powerhouse football conference that the media and the fans make it out to be.

    LSU will be the national champs this year. You can put money on it.

  • Timothy Sexton9/4/2007

    What would REALLY be interesting is if Appalachian State goes undefeated. Wonder if they could sneak their way into the Division 1A top ten?

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