Mike Fitzpatrick and Patrick Murphy Battle for 8th Congressional District

PHILADELPHIA - Patrick Murphy, first elected to Congress in 2006, teamed with then Senator Barack Obama to sponsor legislation opposing the Iraq war surge. Now it appears more and more likely that Murphy's political proximity to a president rapidly losing popularity might cost him in the upcoming November mid-term elections. This, in spite of a two to one advantage in campaign funds.

Murphy rode the Obama wave to success, but that wave might now have become a riptide that pulls the candidate back out to sea. Murphy is one of several Democrats who rubber stamped major Obama sponsored legislation: health care, stimulus, climate change, and financial regulation.

Born in Philadelphia Candidates are Favorite Sons

But even for those moderate Democrats who found the Obama policies left of center, Murphy had much to recommend him. Like challenger and former congressman Mike Fitzpatrick, Murphy was also born in Philadelphia.

Democrats, always sensitive to criticism they were weak in matters of national defense and the military, were eager to embrace Murphy. Murphy served in the U.S. Army in Bosnia and later in Iraq; he had lectured at the U.S. Military Academy at West Point. He was the type of candidate moderate Democrats could support-modeling himself as the traditional "Blue Dog."

Facts of Pennsylvania's 8^th Congressional District

Pennsylvania's 8^th Congressional district circumscribes "all of Bucks County, a tiny finger of Montgomery County around Willow Grove, and parts of two wards in Northeast Philadelphia. That little bit of Philadelphia proper helped Murphy in previous elections, but the numbers there may not be enough to make up for support lost to a close affiliation with the Obama agenda.

Pennsylvania is a "blue state" Democrat enclave, but tradition is strong, and the many unemployed blue-collar and voters have lost faith in the Administration's economic policies. The August unemployment in Pennsylvania is 9.2% and there is the feeling in the Philadelphia urban communities that President Obama hasn't responded to astronomical levels of urban youth unemployment.

Murphy Champions Gay Rights

A large concern among Democrat's progressive wing is the military's "don't ask, don't tell" policy. With his military background and boy-next-door looks, Patrick Murphy seemed the idea politician to push the issue among constituents. This effort failed in Congress when there weren't enough votes on both sides of the aisle to repeal the policy. Don't ask, don't tell" isn't a high priority for a state which had to borrow $3 billion from the federal government to pay unemployment benefits.

Dueling Political Polls Favor Fitzpatrick, Murphy

Murphy's campaign spokesman explains that Murphy's lag in political polls is due to spending 'too much time" on a social issue and too little on his own political survival. The poll referred to was a September 23 Franklin and Marshall College poll which showed Fitzpatrick ahead among registered voters by a margin of 10% and even wider among those "most likely to vote."

Murphy's camp quickly responded with a September 27 poll conducted by the Harstad Strategic Research team employed by the Obama administration during its own campaign. That poll shows Murphy with a slight lead over Fitzpatrick, but within the margin of error. With a two to one spending advantage, expect Patrick Murphy to pour money into a media barrage which will cut into Fitzpatrick's poll numbers.

The Michael Vick v. Donovan McNabb Connection

At this very moment on Yahoo's "Trending Now," home page, I see that Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Michael Vick holds the number five position whereas former Eagles QB and current Washington Redskins quarterback Donovan McNabb occupies the number ten slot. The race for Pennsylvania's 8^th Congressional District may not be quite as exciting as the contest between the two Eagles' quarterbacks but it's just as hard to predict the outcome of today's Philadelphia Eagles v. Washington Redskins game.

Sources:

Yahoo's "Trending Now" Home Page
http://www.pa2010.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/10
/9-29-Harstad-Poll-Memo.pdf
http://edisk.fandm.edu/FLI/keystone/pdf/key8CDsep10_1.pdf
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/federal-eye/2010/09/
dont_ask_dont_tell_vote_set_fo_1.html
http://www.govtrack.us/congress/findyourreps.xpd?state=PA&district=8