Mike Mussina and Don Sutton
As he was calling the game Rose commented on Randy Johnson, who started the game for the Yankees. Rose said that Johnson has 273 wins and is already a Hall of Famer. Who can argue that? But then Rose went on to say that Johnson's teammate, Mike Mussina, was a different matter. Mussina might or might not be a Hall of Famer, in Rose's opinion, depending upon how many more games he wins. As of right now, Rose thinks Mussina is not a Hall of Famer. "He's like Don Sutton," Rose said. He went on to say that Sutton got in because he won 300 games, and that Mussina was going to need close to that to also get in.
My reaction was, "What! Are you kidding me?!" I was just a kid when Sutton pitched, but having watched both of them pitch, it's no contest as to who's the better pitcher. Mussina by a mile. So I decided to run the numbers on them. You know what I found? It's even more ridiculous than I thought.
Don Sutton
Sutton pitched most of his career for the Dodgers and compiled a 324-256 record. That's a .559 winning percentage. He pitched to 93% of the League ERA over his career, park adjusted. Sutton's winning percentage is .026 above the teams he pitched for (a low number for a Hall of Famer, but above Gomez, .013, and Drysdale, .011).
Mike Mussina
Going into the 2007 season, Mike Mussina's record is 234-139. That's good for a winning percentage of .641. Mussina has pitched to 80% of the League ERA so far in his career, park adjusted. His winning percentage above the teams he pitched for is currently .092. That puts Mussina in a tie for 9th place with Whitey Ford, Smokey Joe Wood and Dazzy Vance on the ALL TIME LIST.
If Mike Mussina retired today, HE'S A 1st BALLOT HALL OF FAMER based upon his numbers. There are very few pitchers in baseball's history that have a better record than Mussina's, and Don Sutton is certainly not one of them, by a long shot.
Over his 10 year career with Baltimore, Mussina's record was 147-81 (.645), while the O's were 792-760 (.510). That means that he pitched .135 percent above that of the team he pitched for. Take out Mussina's record and the Orioles record is 34 games below .500 (645-679) over the ten year span. That is a tremedous accomplishment that only a handful of pitchers in Major League history can match.
So far with the Yankees, Mussina's record is .024 better than what the Yankees have been during his career with them. Not nearly as good as with the Orioles, but still just about what Sutton accomplished over his whole career. And Sutton pitched most of his career in the best pitcher's park in baseball, while Mussina has pitched in parks that generally favor the hitters.
So, to date, Mussina has a much higher winning percentage, .641 vs .559 for Sutton, a much better ERA, 80% of League ERA vs 93% for Sutton, and has a winning percentage above the teams he pitched for that is miles ahead of Sutton's, .092 vs .026. Who's the better pitcher? They are not even comparable in any meaningful way.
Howie Rose makes his living announcing games, but when he makes a statement that, "Mike Mussina is like Don Sutton," you have to wonder what games Rose is really watching. That statement is so far off the mark, so out of touch with the reality of the situation, that any opinions Rose might have on players or the game itself, cannot be taken seriously. His statement was ignorant of the facts, and just completely wrong.
Mike Mussina is already a Hall of Fame pitcher, and is a far greater pitcher than Don Sutton ever was.
Published by Statsman
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3 Comments
Post a CommentYou are a plethora of statistical information. BTW...Mike Mussina was the man when I lived near Baltimore!
Oh, and I think if you check the park factors, Camden Yards has been a pitcher's park after the first couple of years. I bet it favored pitchers in at least half of the years that Mussina pitched there.
I enjoyed this article. But while I think the stats you are using have merit, I don't think they are ones that the BBWAA will use to evaluate Mussina when he becomes eligible. I think they will look at raw win totals rather than percentage. Does he pitch long enough to reach 300 wins? He's never won 20 in a season, he never won a Cy Young Award, his teams never won a World Series - rightly or wrongly I think that's what writers will look at. I think Mussina falls into a class with Smoltz, Schilling and Kevin Brown. Smoltz has the post-season rep and the years as a dominating closer. Schilling has the bloody sock. I imagine they both get in before Moose. I think we'll be able to tell a lot about Mussina's chances by how well Kevin Brown does in HOF voting. The comp to Sutton works because from the HOF voters POV, Mussina's candidacy rests on a long career of top notch pitching, rather than any outstanding 3-5 seasons.