Mitt Romney Takes Early Lead in Presidential Primaries, with Sarah Palin Tied for a Distant Third

With the midterm elections barely a week old, the Republican Party has its eyes on the big prize, the presidency, for 2012. According to Public Policy Polling, 2008 hopeful Mitt Romney has a large lead in polling in the GOP's first presidential primary state of New Hampshire, with 40 percent of those answering the poll choosing Romney. They go on to list Mike Huckabee at 13 percent and a tie between Newt Gingrich and Sarah Palin each with 10 percent. With the wind at his back, Romney has a solid year to continue to make the case as to why he should be the Republican Party's pick to replace President Obama. But the case could be made that this is Sarah Palin's election.

Foreword

Let it be said, first and foremost, that I am a registered Democrat, and haven't voted for a Republican candidate for anything in 14 years. If Sarah Palin were to finally throw her hat into the ring and pull off an amazing upset in the GOP establishment, my voting pattern would certainly not change when it comes to my vote for the presidency. My choice for Palin as the Republican Party's candidate for president is because of her near-certain un-electability in the general election.

Sarah Palin - History and Gaffes

When she was chosen as John McCain's running mate in 2008 out of obscurity in Alaska, people, and especially Republicans, quickly warmed to her folksy demeanor. Many found her persona refreshing against the stodgy, combative attitude of McCain. Then there were several disastrous interviews in which Palin was accused of being ignorant and unprepared and certainly not presidential. Remember the infamous, "you can actually see Russia from land here in Alaska" quote from Charlie Gibson's interview with Sarah Palin regarding the insight she had into Russian affairs when she was governor of Alaska?

Sarah Palin - A Divider, Not a Uniter

Palin is a polarizing figure. A CBS News Poll Analysis dated Oct. 6, 2010, shows that nearly 50 percent of Americans view Sarah Palin unfavorably. It also reveals that her favorability rating is only 6 percent among Democrats, which isn't surprising, but is also only 22 percent among independents, who will likely be key in the 2012 electorate. While Palin can fire up her Republican base, she will also fire up the Democratic base against her and will likely ignite an opposition among independents. With her numerous tweets that indicate little inclination toward compromising on anything, and combative posturing, she shows all signs of being yet another divisive personality in Washington.

Sarah Palin - A Democratic Party Godsend

If the most recent midterm election was indeed a referendum on the Obama administration, then barring any substantial improvement in the economy that President Obama can claim was a direct result of the Democratic Party's initiatives over the past two years, 2012 will likely shape up to be another big year for Republicans. However, a Republican Party that unites around Palin waving the banner of conservatism will scare the hell out of the Democratic Party and likely a majority of moderates. 2008 was a record year for Democratic fundraising efforts; 2012 would almost certainly surpass that, as progressive and liberal groups seek at all costs to prevent a Palin presidency. A less divisive candidate, like Mitt Romney or Mike Huckabee, despite holding similar conservative views as Palin, would stand a better chance of winning against an Obama brand that has been weakened by a bruising midterm election.

Run, Sarah, run? Please?

Sources:

Public Policy Polling. (Nov 9, 2009). And the GOP Primary Numbers....
Montopoli, Brian. (October 6, 2010). Poll: Sarah Palin Favorability Rating Just 22%.
Ambinder, Marc. (October 19, 2010). Sarah Palin's Tweet: A Typo or Something Worse?
Gibson, Charlie. (September 11, 2008). Excerpts: Charlie Gibson Interviews Sarah Palin.