MLB Preview: New York Mets

The New York Mets would like nothing more than to wipe the 2007 season from their memories. The team was in control of the NL East with a little more than two weeks remaining in the season. Thanks to a historic slump, and a red hot Phillies team the Mets found themselves sitting at home during the MLB playoffs.

Their were a combination of factors that led to last season's collapse, and none became more evident then the age of the starting rotation. The Mets relied on Tom Glavine to win the final game of the season, and Glavine certainly had the track record to keep Mets fans optimistic. After a disastrous outing it was clear the Mets had to find some additional pitching help this offseason. That help came late in the off-season, but the Mets think it was worth the wait as they acquired former Cy Young award winner Johan Santana.

Now it's time to answer three questions about the 2008 New York Mets

(1) Was the acquisition of Johan Santana the most important deal in the off-season?

The Santana sweepstakes certainly caught the most attention this off-season, and when the deal was finally consumated the baseball public had already declared the Mets the NL East title. The Santana acquisition will certainly help the Mets in their quest for a World Series title, but the team still has some holes in their rotation.

Johan Santana gives the Mets the games best pitcher, and really one of the best pitchers in t3he games recent history. Santana posted sub 3 ERA's in the American league on a consistent basis, and there is no reason to think why he won't continue to do that in the NL. In fact it's scary to think what Santana could do in a league where there is no DH, as a lot of mediocre pitchers are able to shave a half run off their ERA just by switching leagues.

Santana will also be benefited by the fact that he leaves one of the more hitter friendly parks, to go to Shea stadium, which is one of the most difficult parks to hit home runs. When looking at Santana's season last year, the only noticeable difference in his stat line is the 33 home runs he gave up last season. That was 9 more than he gave up in 2006, and it's very doubtful he will give up that many this season pitching in Shea stadium.

The other beneficial factor in having a Johan Santana in the rotation is the fact that he simply just doesn't get hurt. Santana has pitched at least 219 innings during the past three seasons. This is an important factor considering the Mets shelved out more than 100 million dollars to keep his rights past this season.

(2) Will the rest of the Mets rotation be able to stay healthy and produce enough results to keep the team in the race?

The Mets will be relying heavily on Orlando Hernandez and Pedro Martinez again this season, and that's always a little worrisome considering the recent injury histories both pitchers have.

Martinez didn't pitch in a single game for the Mets until September of last year as he was recovering from rotator cuff surgery. Martinez was impressive when he came back, but will never regain the velocity that he had during his heyday with the Red Sox.

Orlando Hernandez had a very respectable 2007 season for the Mets, and his 147 innings pitched is probably a good estimate on the number of innings he will pitch this season. In fact the Mets should feel pleased if he ends up with that many innings. This leaves the Mets in a bit of a quandary during the season, the team has to expect one if not both of these pitchers to spend some time on the DL, so they will need to rely on someone else to give them quality starts.

Aaron Heilman may be that guy as he has desired a slot in the rotation during the past two seasons, the Mets have felt he's better suited for a bullpen role.

The Mets still have some questionmarks with their #2 and #3 starters as John Maine was the team's most consistent pitcher last season, but came apart during the 2nd half of the season. Oliver Perez posted a very successful 2007 season, but he has been very inconsistent throughout his career, and has not been able to put together back to back consistent seasons yet.

(3) Will the Mets regret not finding replacements for their aging veterans?

This could be the major undoing of the Mets this season, the team went out and acquired the games best pitcher, but ignored one major weakness in their lineup. That weakness is the age of many of their regulars. Moises Alou is already in his 40's and is expected to miss some time before the season starts due to an injury.

Carlos Delgado was already sent back to New York to get his hip checked out, and although he returned to Spring Training it's an ominous sign to say the least. Carlos Beltran is not as old as Alou or Delgado but he has lost a step over the past two seasons thanks to a quad injury, and it sounds as if that is not completely healed this Spring either.

The Mets would be extremely unlucky if all three of these stars missed substantial time this year, but it's clear that the team can't win without them as they have very little depth in their system. That is one drawback in the Santana deal for the Mets, many didn't feel they gave up much to get him, but they still gave up 5 of their top 10 prospects. This means unless the Mets are willing to give up Fernando Martinez, they will have a hard time acquiring an impact player prior to the trade deadline.

As if the injuries to Alou, Delgado, and Beltran weren't enough it appears as if Luis Castillo's knee problems are resurfacing and that is never a good sign for a 32 year old 2nd baseman. Castillo looks as if he will be ready to start the season, but the Mets may suffer defensively as Castillo may lose some additional range on defense.

The 2008 season for the Mets could lead to a World Series, or it could lead to massive changes during the off-season. The health of their aging regulars and the health of Martinez and Hernandez in the starting rotation will go a long way in determining which direction the 2008 Mets take.