MLB Season Preview: 2009 Cincinnati Reds

The Cincinnati Reds haven't seen the north side of .500 since 2000, an 85-77 record that netted them second place in the National League Central. Since then, they've posted win percentages from a high of .494 in 2006 to a low of .407 in 2001, to last year's 74-88 season (.457, if you're keeping score).

Last year saw a rise of some new stars, the departure of a future first-ballot Hall of Famer who spent a good deal of his time in the Queen City on the sidelines, and the arrival of the other half of a trade that gave both teams out-of-the-blue success stories. Can they continue to build upon the foundation and get a little championship gold back in Cincy?

OFFENSE: C+

With the departure of free agents Adam Dunn and Cooperstown-bound Ken Griffey, Jr., the Reds are renewing the raid on their minor league cupboards, and have found them to be a good source of power, if not average, such as RF Jay Bruce (.254, 21 homers, 52 RBI in 108 games) and 1B Joey Votto (.297, 24 and 84), who burst onto the scene last year to join another power-heavy player at third in Edwin Encarnacion (.251, 26, 68). 2B Brandon Phillips has that all-or-nothing affliction like his mates (.261 and 21 homers to go with 23 steals) and will be the cleanup hitter in a lineup full of them.
If only someone could get on base consistently...

PROJECTED LINEUP: 1 Taveras CF 2 Dickerson LF 3 Bruce RF 4 Phillips 2B 5 Votto 1B 6 Encarnacion 3B 7 Hernandez C 8 Gonzalez SS 9 Pitcher's spot

STARTING PITCHING: D+

In keeping with an apparent theme for the Redlegs, the starting rotation is very hit-or-miss. Aaron Harang is the number one, and he followed up a stellar 2007 (16-6, 3.73 ERA) with, uh, a gold star for attendance in 2008 (6-17, 4.78) after landing a multi-year deal. Bronson Arroyo had two straight 14-win seasons coming into '07, hit a 15-loss skid that year, and bounced back to win 15 last year, so it's spin the wheel, make the deal. A lot will depend on Harang dialing up 2007, Arroyo maintaining consistency, and for Micah Owings to show more.
Oh, and a lot more of Edinson Volquez wouldn't hurt, either (17-6, 3.21 after being traded for some guy named Hamilton).

PROJECTED ROTATION: Harang, Volquez, Arroyo, Cueto, Owings

BULLPEN: B-

The bullpen was solid last season (3.82 ERA, eighth in the league) and may be the best unit on the team this year, even before the addition of Arthur Rhodes to bring the left arm that struck out Moses on three pitches as a lefty specialist. Francisco Cordero converted 34 of 40 chances last year, David Weathers, the previous closer, comes back to set him up, Rhodes and Bill Bray come in to face the lefties and, more often than not, put them down. Ramon Ramirez, who had a few starts and fared pretty well last year, can step in as a long reliever or a spot starter, and the others, such as Nick Masset and Mike Lincoln, make substantial contributions as well. If the starters can hold down the fort to the seventh, it could be lights out at Great American Ballpark.

CONCLUSION

Considering that four teams finished above .500 in this division, and two of them made the playoffs last year, and monsters like Albert Pujols at the plate and Roy Oswalt on the mound just to name two, the Reds would have to have an awful lot break right for them to break out of this losing slide. For one more year, Cincinnati will be entertaining to watch, but, much like watching "Con Air" or "Major League," not very fulfilling.

PREDICTION: 75-87, fifth in National League Central