Modern Theory on Population: Mercantilist Views

The relatively short span between the late fifteenth and the late eighteenth centuries was a period of great change set in motion by the changes in man's attitudes brought about by the Renaissance. This period witnessed the emergence of the nation state, new scientific discoveries, the exploration of new territories, and the rapid growth of trade, the gradual dissolution of the mediaeval feudal system and the development of early capitalism which laid the basis for the Industrial Revolution. The combined influence of these events was reflected also in the evolution of economic ideas and the thinking on population

Mercantilist Views

The above-mentioned factors were important elements in the rise of mercantilism, a current of new ideas in political economy, which was greatly influenced by Machiavelli's and Bodin's theories of the Absolutist State. While the ideas of individual mercantilist and cameralist writers diverged considerably and the term "mercantilism" continues to be interpreted differently the central tenet was the power and wealth of the state, and, in particular, the accumulation of money and precious metals came to be considered by a number of these writers as the main objective of national policies. The principal means of attaining these goals of power and wealth were the expansion of foreign trade and the development of manufacturing. Mercantilist doctrine oriented towards economic policy, did not develop a population theory in a strict sense, although views on population occupied a prominent place in the mercantilist system.

In Most of Europe

Mercantilist ideas dominated economic thinking in most of Europe during mush of the seventeenth and part of the eighteenth century. Some of the views expressed by the mercantilist are, however, already found in earlier writings, among them those of Botero. According to Botero, the strength of the state is to be found in its population and the predominance of industry over agriculture. However, he also noted that population tends the increase to the full extent made possible by human fecundity, while the means of subsistence and their capacity to increase were limited and, therefore, imposed a ceiling on population increase. This limit on population growth manifested itself through poverty, which discouraged marriage, and through periodic calamities, such as wars and pestilence. Like some mercantilists later, Botero advocated the establishment colonies which could help to absorb a surplus population and at the same time would strengthen the power of the state.

Advantage of Large Population

Mercantilist writers in general stressed the advantages of a large and growing population and favored policies aimed at stimulating population growth, including measures to encourage marriage and large families, to improve public health, to check emigration to other countries and to promote immigration especially of skilled workers. Some mercantilist, like Child, Coke, Davenant and Bossuet, argued that wealth itself consists in the largest possible population, while others, like Fortrey and Bacher, stressed the combination of a large population and much money. Even those mercantilist writers who did not pay much attention to population, usually considered a large population as an important element in the strength of the stage. The mercantilist saw both political and economical advantage in having a numerous population. Population was not only an important factor in the power of the state, but also played a role in increasing the State's revenue and wealth. These latter goals, it was argued, could be reached either by increasing the total income of the State or through a higher excess of national product over its wage costs. Both would be served by a larger population, since such a population would, supposedly through a large and growing labor force, simultaneously generate a higher income and depress wage levels and thus wage costs. Temple asserted that the density of population is the basis of wealth. He argued that when population is scarce, people can easily obtain their livelihood and that, as a result, they would become lazy. On the contrary, under conditions of high density, people would have to work hard to live, creating attitudes favoring economic activity and industry. The benefits of a larger population and additional labor would be particularly great, according to most mercantilist writers, manufacturing rather than agriculture was supposed to yield increasing returns and because manufactured products could be exchanged abroad for precious metals-materials considered among the most important elements in a nation's wealth.