Most Exciting Teams of 2009: Using BEF

(For background on the Batting Excitement Factor (BEF), please view the following article: http://www.associatedcontent.com/article/1507571/batting_excitement_factor_bef_explained.html?cat=14)

For the purposes of BEF analysis, I have performed calculations for all major league players on team rosters after March 1^st who had at least 100 plate appearances in 2008. As a reminder, any player with a BEF of exactly 1.000 is considered mildly entertaining and any player above a 1.250 consistently delivers at-bats that are well worth the price of admission.

Further discovery has shown that players below 1.000 but above 0.900 will mix in enough interesting outcomes to make them watchable, while hitters below the 0.900 line are likely to put you to sleep. Those unfortunate few who fall below the 0.700 line are about as exciting as a day of strip canasta at your local senior center.

The NL East is home to the defending World Champs, the Philadelphia Phillies. In addition, the division includes the heartbreaking NY Mets, the underfunded Florida Marlins, an Atlanta Braves team that's trying to regain its former glory, and the universally panned Washington Nationals. Which of these teams has assembled the most interesting squad of 2009? In alphabetical order...

Braves Starters:
Kelly Johnson 1.065
Brian McCann 1.063
Chipper Jones 1.061
Garret Anderson 1.059
Matt Diaz 0.987
Casey Kotchman 0.835
Jeff Francoeur 0.797
Yunel Escobar 0.751

Braves Bench:
Josh Anderson 1.304
Martin Prado 0.986
Greg Norton 0.944
Brandon Jones 0.941
Omar Infante 0.874
Gregor Blanco 0.786
David Ross 0.652

Key Points:
The starting lineup as a whole is pretty bland since it cannot boast a single player above 1.100. Chipper Jones might be a hall of fame lock, but he was only somewhat exciting in 2008 despite hovering around .400 for quite a while. Matt Diaz is that rare player who sits near 1.000 even though he doesn't do anything particularly interesting. This can be explained by his almost impossible three walks in 140 plate appearances. The Braves PR department might want to place a call to Bobby Cox and get Josh Anderson in the lineup for his speed on the basepaths and platoon Diaz and Francoeur.

Marlins Starters:
Hanley Ramirez 1.309
Dan Uggla 1.222
Cody Ross 1.207
Jorge Cantu 1.104
Jeremy Hermida 0.995
John Baker 0.933
Wes Helms 0.853
Cameron Maybin N/A

Marlins Bench:
Emilio Bonifacio 1.000
Alfredo Amezaga 0.897
Mike Rabelo 0.760

Key Points:
This team has a very high K/BB ratio, which helps their overall BEF. If the starting lineup can remain healthy, the Marlins will be an exciting team in 2009. However, if anyone gets hurt, they have one of the weaker and younger benches in baseball. With another year under his belt, Bonifacio will hopefully be given the green light on his SB attempts, making him the player to watch off of that bench.

Mets Starters:
Jose Reyes 1.261
David Wright 1.213
Carlos Beltran 1.194
Carlos Delgado 1.140
Fernando Tatis 1.123
Ryan Church 1.060
Brian Schneider 0.729
Luis Castillo 0.726

Mets Bench:
Ramon Castro 1.091
Angel Pagan 1.004
Daniel Murphy 0.936
Nick Evans 0.859
Cory Sullivan 0.847
Jeremy Reed 0.810
Marlon Anderson 0.707
Alex Cora 0.584

Key Points:
If you had to name the four most recognizable hitters on the Mets, you would also name the top four Mets in terms of BEF. This is total conjecture, but Luis Castillo must not run out his ground balls, because his GDP is very high given his SB totals. Reed, Evans, and Murphy feel like the same player to me (with their best attribute being their doubles power), but Murphy gets the nod because of his triples per plate appearance. Mets fans better pray that Reyes stays healthy because Alex Cora would need to get roughly 216% more exciting to match his numbers.

Nats Starters:
Elijah Dukes 1.176
Adam Dunn 1.116
Jesus Flores 1.096
Ronnie Belliard 1.057
Lastings Milledge 1.045
Josh Willingham 1.000
Christian Guzman 0.940
Ryan Zimmerman 0.935

Nats Bench:
Willie Harris 0.984
Nick Johnson 0.792
Austin Kearns 0.713
Kory Casto 0.702
Wil Nieves 0.696
Wily Mo Pena 0.655
Alberto Gonzalez 0.649

Key Points:
As stated in the original BEF article, Adam Dunn would be my guess to have the highest BEF, but Dukes takes the cake here. The Nats really don't have a weak spot in their order from a fan standpoint, which will hopefully help them shed the negative image the media has linked to them over the years. Other than Willie Harris, that bench is looking awfully thin in the excitement department. On the bright side, it houses some name players (Kearns, Johnson, Pena) that should lessen the blow some.

Phils Starters:
Ryan Howard 1.364
Jayson Werth 1.347
Chase Utley 1.190
Shane Victorino 1.179
Jimmy Rollins 1.137
Raul Ibanez 1.077
Pedro Feliz 0.840
Carlos Ruiz 0.542

Phils Bench:
Greg Dobbs 1.233
Matt Stairs 0.953
Chris Coste 0.923
Geoff Jenkins 0.892
Ronnie Paulino 0.762
Eric Bruntlett 0.758

Key Points:
Ryan Howard is a BEF machine, and is the best player in this division when measured this way. I have always like Jayson Werth's game and his BEF proves he deserves that spot in RF. The guy has power, speed, and the whiffs to keep me watching. Ruiz and Feliz completely drag down the starter BEF, which is extremely high otherwise. Every year, I am surprised that Chris Coste is passed over as the permanent starter on this club. He does a lot more per plate appearance than most catchers, especially Mr. Ruiz. Greg Dobbs also gets lost in the shuffle since he is such a good pinch hitter. [He actually led the league in 2008 in this category.]

Final Summary:
The NL East should provide a lot of fun in '09, with the exception of a very bland Braves team. The Mets and Nats are both in good shape if they stay healthy, although the Mets rely more on their star BEF while the Nats have eight guys who provide similar at-bats. The top two teams though are the Marlins and the Phillies. Using the straight numbers, the Marlins actually have a slightly higher BEF (1.089 to 1.085), but if you pulled Ruiz out of the lineup and replaced him with Coste that number would jump to a very nice 1.132. And since, we cannot know for sure what type of year Cameron Maybin is going to have for the Fish, I am going to give the nod to the Phillies in a close one.

NL East BEF Winner: Phillies

Source: All stats provided by baseball-reference.com.

Source: Projected starting lineups were predicted with the help of Yahoo! Sports, CBS Sports, and my own knowledge of major league players.

Source: Any outside division finish predictions were compiled from Yahoo! Sports User Rankings.