My 2007 World Series Preview & Prediction

Yes, finally the World Series is set. We now know that the "Comeback kids" of Boston will be taking on the juggernaut known as the Rockies, who will come down from the mountains of Colorado. This should be a great series based on the stats and chemistry of the teams. Boston, who came out of the gates firing on all cylinders started to fade down the stretch. They pulled it all together to win the division. They went on to surprise the Indians who had a 3-1 lead in the ALCS. Who would have guessed that they could come back from such a huge deficit? Oh, yeah, everyone in the world saw it coming. The Rockies on the other hand seemed to beat everyone in the last month of the season, and then beat the Padres to squeak into the playoffs as the wildcard. Once in the playoffs then they continued to dominate by beating the Cubs and then annihilating the Diamondbacks. Now looking at the upcoming series we need to compare the teams.

First looking at the regular season the teams were actually pretty comparable. The Red Sox finished the season 96-66, where the Rockies finished 90-73. Both teams were pretty close while they were at home, the Red Sox were 51-30 and the Rockies were 51-31. The Red Sox had six more wins playing on the road, compared to the Rockies. Their offensive stats were pretty comparable too. The Rockies hit five more homeruns and stole one more base. The Red Sox had a better on base percentage, .362 to .354, but the Rockies had the better batting average, .280 to .279. Where pitching is concerned the Red Sox have the edge. Their team ERA was about a half of a run lower, and they had six more shutouts. The opponents batting average were .314 to .330 in the Red Sox favor.

Now looking at the playoffs, five days ago I would have said that no one is going to touch the Rockies. They only played seven games in the two series. They just kept rolling. But, watching the last three games of the ALCS, and seeing the Red Sox storm back I think they will give the Rockies a good series. The Rockies dominated in the playoffs. Their offense averaged five runs a game and hit .242. The Red Sox offense averaged seven runs a game and hit .304.

Looking at the two teams I give the Rockies the edge defensively but the Red Sox get the edge offensively. The line up of the Red Sox is explosive. If you can somehow shut down hitters 3-5 (Ortiz, Ramirez and Lowell) they can kill you with hitters 6-9 (Drew, Varitek, Ellsbury and Lugo). That doesn't even count Pedroia and Youkilis, who combined hit .354 in the playoffs at the first two spots in the order. This is not to take anything away from the Rockies offense. They were led by Matt Holliday, Todd Helton and Willy Tavares who all hit over .300 for the season. Pitching wise coming into the World Series the edge has got to go with the Red Sox. Starting pitchers for the Rockies were led by Jeff Francis who finished with a respectable 17 wins but he also had an ERA of 4.22. The Red Sox starters were paced by Josh Beckett, who had 20 wins and an ERA of 3.27.

The keys to the Series for both teams are hitting with runners in scoring position and the middle relief. The Red Sox middle relievers had issues during the season. There were times when they would just fall apart. The Rockies middle relief, during the playoffs, was for the most part untouchable. Watching what the Rockies did during the last month of the season, everyone saw that they could hit any pitcher, regardless of the inning or situation.

When it comes right down to it, this is going to be a great series. The Rockies who have never been in this position before and the Red Sox who are just three years removed from their miracle run of 2004. The beauty of this is that there is good pitching and great hitting. It will be fun to watch how the managers deal with certain situations. Who is going to be the DH for the Rockies when they are in Boston? What is the lineup for the Red Sox going to look like when David Ortiz is either on the bench or at first in Colorado? What about Youkilis? He did hit .500 in the ALCS. Should he be at first or on the bench? Great questions, great hitting, great series. My pick is the Red Sox in six.