My New Hampshire Primary Predictions

In just three days New Hampshire residents will cast their votes for the Presidential candidates they would most like to see gain their party's nomination. Two days ago at the Iowa caucuses, we watched Obama and Huckabee walk away with that state's nomination.

As I've been an Obama supporter since before he spoke at the 2004 Democratic Convention, and I've been saying since that night that Barack Obama is going to be the next President of the United States, it shouldn't surprise anyone that I predict he will win in New Hampshire, as he did in Iowa. Originally, I thought that Hillary might give him some trouble in New Hampshire, but in light of the fact that she was booed twice yesterday at the New Hampshire Democratic Party's 100 Club dinner, I think Obama is going to pull ahead by at least five percent. With Obama as the front runner, I believe Hillary will come in second, with Edwards a point or two behind.

The Republicans are a bit trickier to predict. Huckabee's win in Iowa was due to a large turnout of his base, the Evangelical Right. They are not a deciding force in New Hampshire. I think McCain will take the race on the GOP side, with Romney trailing close behind. Huckabee's performance in Iowa, combined with his shift in tactics for New Hampshire, might gain him a third place slot, but I don't look for him to do any better than that. Ron Paul's surprising ten percent in Iowa will likely improve his performance in New Hampshire, and I believe he will pull ahead of Giuliani and Thompson and come in with a fourth place showing.

Predictions are tricky things. Political upsets are extremely common, especially in these early states, as they tend to set the tone for the rest of the country.