My Thoughts on the 2011 Kentucky Derby

It's here again, the Kentucky Derby and it really looks like a toss up as to who will win.

Can Uncle Mo bounce back from a horrible Wood Memorial race? The Factor is out as are many of the early favorites.

We seem to be left with a field of question marks. Who can go the distance? Will Calvin ride and win again? Will there be another shocker like Giacomo and Mind that Bird?

All legitimate questions. I've kind of distilled it to a few factors that I personally like to look at.

1.) Is the horse bred for the distance?

2.) Who is amongst the fastest of the horses?

3.) Is the horse going backward or showing some forward movement.

In this years field I've narrowed it down to 4 horses. Will I be right? I don't know that's why they run the races!

But I have a good feeling about my selections for 2011. My main contenders, in no particular order are as follows:

Soldat - his best speed rating is 103 and he is bred for the distance and his last race was a jockey disaster. Made a huge move way too soon and faltered in the stretch. I think he is a very talented and under-rated horse. With a Dosage Index of 2.47, Center of Distribution of 0.69, Soldat is a dual qualifier and ranks high on my list of contenders.

Uncle Mo - not much to say about the 2-year old champion. His best speed figure is 108, he has a Dosage Index of 2.20 and a Center of Distribution of 0.50 and he is a dual qualifier. I just don't think his running style favors him in the Derby , but he still is a top pick.

Mucho Macho Man - another horse that has a lot of potential but just has not "hit that gear," His top speed figure of 99 puts him in my mix. He also has a Derby contender Dosage Index of 2.43 and a Center of Distribution of 0.83 which means he can make the distance.

Stay Thirsty - the "other" Pletcher horse. I like his running style and rumor has it Calvin Borel will ride. That alone makes him a dangerous horse. He sports a 2.25 Dosage Index and a 0.54 Center of Distribution, meaning he too should be able to handle the distance.

Finally, I like Dialed In but I'm not sold on his low 91 speed rating. He's going to have to step it up. Can Zito break his Derby schneid? Not too sure. His Dosage Index of 3.62 and Center of Distribution of 0.87 puts him on the fringe, in my opinion.

I will be posting free horse racing picks for the entire Churchill card on Derby day. Stop by our website and check them out. Or find us on Twitter, search for betwon.