My Women's Wimbledon Predictions? You Gotta Be Kidding!

Okay, we all knew that this grass court season was going to be as up in the air as the entire 2011 season has been since the Australian Open. The clarity we thought we would have with Kim Clijsters win in Melbourne was soon muddied by her subsequent spotty play and bad dancing at weddings causing ankle injuries. Caroline Wozniacki was her normal consistent self, but only on one big stage '" the BNP Paribas Open (Indian Wells) and some lesser events. Never when it has mattered the most at the majors.

Some other women have stepped in to fill the void at the top: Julia Goerges, Andrea Petkovic, Petra Kvitova, Victoria Azarenka, Li Na, Maria Sharapova, Maria Kirilenko -- and a slew of other lower-ranked players. But no one who could be called in to stand as THE bonafide "champion" of the tour. This has made the prospect of picking a potential Wimbledon champ about as good as winning Mega Millions. Okay maybe not quite the same odds, but no easy feat either.

That was true until Venus and Serena announced their return to tennis for the Eastbourne Championships as preparation for : 1 '" Serena's defense of her Wimbledon title and, 2 '" Venus' try at a 6th Venus Rosewater dish. These two ladies are of that "champion" ilk that is so badly needed right now on the WTA tour to bring clarity and legitimacy to the rankings. So of course we all waited to see what would happen when they finally hit the courts in match play. Verdict? The results were a little less than what most of us had hoped for, though they were probably "realistic" of how things were probably going to transpire at their first event in so many months (Venus in 5 months, Serena in almost a year).

Serena lost a 3 set 3 hour battle in the second round to Vera Zvonareva. Venus went one round further but lost in the third round to Daniela Hantuchova in 3 sets. Serena's loss at this early stage in a tournament was understandable given her surgeries for foot and blood clot issues (and how they have affected her ability to train). The loss by Venus is a little more significant though. Even with her 5 month layoff, she seemed to be finding her game until this loss. And this was the first time Daniela has beaten her in 11 attempts. In fact she had only lost two sets to Daniela in their previous matches. Yes, Daniela has been playing well and made it to the finals in Birmingham last week. But Venus' comprehensive win over Ivanovic seemed to indicate a return to form that just didn't materialize in her play today. And that's where Venus generally is these days: sometimes her game shows up and it all comes together. Sometimes it just doesn't. There is no rhyme or reason.

So here we are. The two women who were supposed to bring order to the WTA chaos are not as close to fulfilling their roles as we had hoped. Clijsters has withdrawn. Caroline isn't even in the conversation. Azarenka retired AGAIN today against Marion Bartoli (I think the running total is 4 to date for this year -- so far). Svetlana Kuznetsova is playing up and down tennis as usual. Li Na lost in straight sets to Hantuchova in the second round. Hantuchova has taken out some big scalps during the past few weeks, but has never been able to put it together at a Major. Sam Stosur came back in three sets to beat Vera but she's also come down with bad stage fright at the Majors since last year's French Open. Vera hasn't made it back to a final since the US Open, but you never know with her. I tell ya, it makes my head spin!

Rather than focusing on the chaos, let's take a moment to note the players that have been posting solid, consistent results and who are trending upward as the year progresses. That might be a better benchmark for what may happen at Wimbledon next week.

Marion Bartoli: The 9th-ranked Frenchwoman as quietly enjoyed a very successful year with improved fitness and confidence. Made a nice run at the French until her semi-final match-up with Francesca (it's not a good one for her at all). Has made several semi-final appearances this year and was a finalist at Indian Wells and Strasbourg. She withdrew from the Birmingham event with a recurrence of the thigh injury that derailed her Strasbourg final, but is currently in the quarters at Eastbourne. If fitness isn't in question she could possibly repeat her breakout performance as a finalist at Wimby in 2007.
Andrea Petkovic: The 11th-ranked German has had an outstanding year, mostly on clay. Got a very tough draw in Eastbourne with Venus in the first round, but did well taking it to 3. It's not clear how she will fare on grass with limited matches. But you never know. As Mary Carillo says, "Athleticism is rewarded on grass", and the athleticism she has displayed to do well on clay might help her at Wimbledon.
Petra Kvitova: The 8th-ranked Czech as also had a very successful spring season with titles in Brisbane, Paris (indoors), and Madrid. She is a smart player and can adapt to different surfaces. If she stays focused under the pressure-filled lights at Wimbledon, she could do some damage.
Maria Sharapova: She already has a Wimbledon crown on her CV, and has played some very good tennis this spring. Even on clay which is her least favorite surface. Now that her shoulder issues (read "serving issues") seem to be mostly behind her, she could make a run this year. She knows how to play grass and has the effective groundstroke game to pin her opponents back to open up the net. But it will still hinge upon her ability to cut out the double faults.

All of these prospects aside, we can't forget or deny the reality of Wimbledon history since 2000. Since that year, a Williams has lifted the Venus Rosewater dish 9 out of 11 times: 5 for Venus, 4 for Serena. Only Sharapova and the now-retired Mauresmo have won the championship the past 11 years. Even though they are both coming back from injury and little match play, their comfort level at Wimbledon has to be taken into account. That is why they were seeded at positions higher than their current ranking. If they are in the draw and healthy, they must be considered at least as contenders and maybe even favorites.

With all of these storylines it is almost impossible to predict who will ultimately be the lone woman left standing on the final Saturday. But as we learned at the French Open, maybe these stories will create some good match drama along the way!