NASCAR - Dale Earnhardt Jr's Slim Chance of Making the Chase in Richmond

NASCAR visits Richmond, Virginia one of the best action tracks that I thoroughly recommend new NASCAR fans tune in to this Saturday night for awesome racing under the lights. It is the third smallest track and at 3/4 of a mile it is fast and racy.

I am taking you inside the race.

Dale Earnhardt Jr is fighting to make the playoffs and this is the last race to earn a spot into the chase for the championship. Fortunately Richmond has been one of his best tracks having finished 3rd or better in 6 of 16 starts. He has finished in the top five in 44% of the races, tops among active drivers with at least ten starts. He has 3 victories, including his second career win back in 2000, and his 10.1 average finish is third among drivers in this weekends race. His average since 2005 on the short tracks is 10.4, second to Stewart at 10.3.

Kevin Harvick has led at least 54 laps in each of the last 4 races here, and has led 37% of those races. I am picking him 5th, behind Earnhardt Jr. Even if Harvick is running good late in the race, he will let Junior pass to avoid taking himself out of the chase.

Tony Stewart comes in 3rd. He won his second start here and led 333 of the 400 laps back in 1999, then won 2 of the next 5 races. He has led 1475 laps on short tracks since 2005, twice as much as the leading competitor, Harvick, with 728. At Richmond, he has led 765 laps compared to Earnhardt's 322. Jeff Burton has led the most laps, 897 and Jeff Gordon 868

Jimmie Johnson has won 3 of the last 5 short track races, including the last race here, but he has only finished in the top ten in 2 of 11 races here with a 19.4 average.(Ouch) Champions like Richard Petty, Dale Earnhardt and Jeff Gordon have always run good on short tracks like Martinsville and Bristol. Watch out for Johnson because he is a short track ace at Martinsville with 3 wins and finishes of fourth or better in 7 of the last 8 races there. His teammates Kyle Busch and Jeff Gordon finished 2nd and 4th to him the last race here. My pick: 6th

Jeff Gordon was running nearly as good as in 1998 before he spun while leading at Watkins Glen with two laps to go. He was averaging 6.1 at that time compared to 5.7 in '98. The previous four races here he has finished of 30th or worse and his 15.9 average is not that great. He has only averaged 14.0 on the short tracks since 2005. He has 14 overall wins at short tracks, but only two here. He might not push the issue late in the race and settle for 7th..

Kurt Busch has a 5th, 2nd and 1st in the last four races here. He is, also one of the hottest drivers of late this season, winning two of the last five races. He finishes 8th. PLAYOFF SCENARIO: If Kurt Busch or Harvick falls out of the race early and Earnhardt Jr finishes around fifth, Junior can make the playoffs. Junior is 128 points behind Harvick and 141 behind Busch. The most points that can be gained is 161.

Second place goes to Denny Hamlin who only has three starts here, but finished 2nd in his first start and 3rd in the last race. He finished 2nd to Jimmie Johnson at Martinsville at the end of last season, and 3rd to Johnson and Gordon this year. That gave him a stretch of top three finishes in 4 of 7 races, with a 6.4 average finish.

First place goes to Kyle Busch who averages 3.4 at Richmond with 2 runner-ups, 2 fourths and a fifth. He led 248 laps in the summer event last season, a race won by Harvick. He has finished top five in 8 of the last 12 short track races with a 5.8 average.

A big factor in a lot of races is who has been hot lately. That list can start with Carl Edwards who finished 2nd at California and won at Bristol. Martin Truex Jr. is still an up and coming driver, earlier this year he won his first career race and had finishes in the top three in 4 of 5 races. They will round out the top ten.

EDITORS NOTE:

NASCAR has always been a very family oriented sport and its drivers are respectable, classy and are admired by fans 2 years old to 92. You never hear controversy over drivers lifestyle morals, like other sports.

Dale Earnhardt Jr is looking to win his first championship. His father won seven. There have been many memorable father son duo's in NASCAR and it started with Lee Petty and his son Richard who combined to win 10 championships. Ned and Dale Jarrett combined for 3 championships. Bobby Allison won 1 championship and his son Davey was a great driver, but he died in a helicopter crash. Allison also lost a son 11 months prior to that in a racing accident.

Many great brother duo's have graced the sport. Most notable is Terry Labonte and Bobby Labonte who combined for 3 championships. Retired racing great Rusty Wallace has two brothers, Mike and Kenny, the latter being one of the sports most colorful characters. Don't forget the Waltrips, Bodines, Greens, Sadlers and Sauters. The fiercest brothers right now are Kyle and Kurt Busch. Kurt dominating at Pocono and Michigan leading 175 of 200 laps at Pocono. The Burton and Labonte brothers may be in the race this weekend.

For new fans, this is a great era of NASCAR racing, with many good drivers and great racing. There have been a few eras; the 70's with Richard Petty and Cale Yarborough, the 80's with Dale Earnhardt and Darrell Waltrip, the 90's with Jeff Gordon and this new era with Tony Stewart and Jimmie Johnson. This is a great time to watch this sport and watch history from a racing point of view. Don't miss your era, I missed everything up to 1998. Ben