NASCAR Preview for Jimmie Johnson Speedway

NASCAR visits Lowe's Motor Speedway, virtually considered Jimmie Johnson speedway. My picks this week are also based upon combined stats from Atlanta and Texas, similar 1.5 quad-oval tracks.

This weekend is about as easy a pick as it gets, the only way Johnson loses is when another driver is red hot during the year. Such is the case in 2006 when Kasey Kahne edged him out by 2.1 seconds over the last 34 laps in the Coca-Cola 600 and again by 1.6 seconds over the last 94 laps in the fall race. Kahne has been one of his fiercest competitors since 2004, leading 550 laps, second only to Johnson with 572.

In Johnson's rookie year of 2002, he dominated the Coca-Cola 600 by leading 263 laps, but he overshot his pit while leading and had to settle for a 7th place finish. In 2004 he led 334 of 400 laps en route to his second Lowe's victory. Kahne was a rookie in 2004 and he dominated the fall race leading 207 laps before wiping out. He finished 32nd and Johnson won the race.

Johnson also won both Lowe's races in 2005 and Kahne finished 23rd or worse despite leading 46 laps overall. Kahne then won both races in 2006 leading 292 laps to Johnson's 96.

Johnson won 5 of the 6 quad-oval races from 2003-05 and in the race he didn't win he finished 3rd to Stewart in 2003. I pick him as the winner, but he is at least a lock to finish in the top three since he had 8 straight top 3 finishes at Lowe's before this year's Coca-Cola 600. He had led 83 laps and was leading with 60 to go, before a loose lug nut during caution stops dropped him back to 10th place. In 4 of his 5 wins he has led less than 35 laps. In an eight-race stretch his average finish was 1.5.

He has finished in the top three in 16 of his 32 starts at the 1.5 mile quad-oval tracks. Prior to a 38th place finish in Texas earlier this year he had top eleven finishes in 21 of 22 races, with 7 wins, 5 runner-up finishes and a 3.9 finish average. An incredible streak of podium finishes in 10 of 12 races and 15 of 21. His worst finish was 16th. After finishing 39th in 2001, prior to his rookie year, he has finished in the top ten in all eleven races here since.

Continuing proof that only hot drivers can beat Johnson on these quad-ovals is from 2005 when Carl Edwards put a halt to Johnson's three-race quad-oval win streak, edging him by .028 seconds over the last 26 laps at Atlanta, in one of NASCAR's best finishes. Johnson won 2 of the next 3 races, but Edwards was hot at the end of the year winning consecutive weekends at Texas and Atlanta.

Kahne won the first 4 quad-oval track races in 2006 and Tony Stewart dominated to win the last two at Texas and Atlanta. Johnson finished 2nd in the last 4 of those races. Stewart led 573 laps in those six races while Johnson only led 124. Kahne led 440.

Kahne led the most laps in 3 of 5 races at Lowe's from 2004-06 totaling 499 laps led of 1068 in those 3 races, 47% of the laps. He has won 2 of last 3 at Lowe's.

Stewart has led the most laps in 4 of the 9 quad-oval races since 2006. He has led more than 55 laps in 2 of the last 4 races at Lowe's and has led 530 overall.

Brian Vickers has had good success at Lowe's especially the Coca-Cola 600. In the #25 Hendrick car he finished 3rd in 2004, then led a race-high 98 laps in 2005, finishing 12th. In 2006 he finished tenth, but he really displayed his knack for this track when he led 76 laps and finished 5th in the #83 Toyota Red Bull car this season. He has finished 13th or better in 5 of last 7 races here.

Matt Kenseth has top fives in 7 of the last 11 quad-oval races with a worse finish of 14th. He led 50 laps this year in the 600 and 82 laps in 2003. Has led 219 laps here.

Kurt Busch led the most laps this year (107) in the Coca-Cola 600, but finished 32nd. He led 46 laps in the fall race in 2002 but finished 12th. He then finished fourth in the same race in 2004 and second in 2005. He led between 14 to 42 laps in the 3 quad-oval races prior to this years 600.

Gordon has only led 3 of the last 12 races at Lowe's for a total of 69 laps. Has 4 wins here but none since 1999.

Edwards has top 10 finishes in 4 of his 5 starts at Lowe's. He finished third in 2005 in the 600 when Johnson edged Labonte at the line, then finished third again in 2006 behind Kahne and Johnson. But, that is his only top five in the last 9 races at the quad-oval tracks. He has top ten finishes in 10 of 16 quad-oval races and his average finish at these tracks and at Lowe's is second to Johnson.

Kyle Busch has a little bad luck here. In 2005 he led 55 laps in the 600, but finished 25th. This year in the 600 he ran in the top 5 for the first half of the race, but battery problems and a spin left him in 30th place. He finished 6th in the fall race last year. He only has 2 top ten finished in 18 quad-oval starts.

Earnhardt Jr has finished between 3rd and 11th in 7 of the last 10 races at Lowe's. He finished 4th and led 37 laps in this event last year, but it was the most he led since 2000 when he led 175 laps in the Coca-Cola 600, a race won by fellow rookie Matt Kenseth. He has top eight finishes in 7 of the last 11 quad-oval races and has led more than 95 laps on three occasions.

Denny Hamlin has top tens in 3 of his 4 Lowe starts and 8 of 12 on the quad-ovals, but only was higher than 7th. He has only led one lap in the last 6 races on these tracks.

From 1997 to 2000 at Lowe's Bobby Labonte had 5 top three finishes in 7 races. He has finished in the top six in 13 of the last 21 races here with only one finish worse than 18th. But, only 2 of the last 8 are top five.

Mark Martin had top five finishes in 11 of 14 races at Lowe's from 1995 to 2002 with a worse finish of 12th. He has 4 wins and has led more laps than anyone here (1168).

Casey Mears now pilots the #25 Hendrick car, and he parlayed a top ten car into a win in the 600 this year on gas mileage. The #25 car has been good on quad-oval tracks, with Vickers in recent years here and with Jerry Nadeau who almost won 3 straight races at Atlanta in 2000-01.

Scott Riggs led 90 laps in the 600 last year but finished 13th then led 34 laps in the fall and finished 17th. If the Evernham Dodge team with Kasey Kahne find their mark this weekend, it could trickle down to Riggs and Sadler.

Ones to watch
1st - Johnson
2nd - Kahne
3rd - Stewart
4th - Vickers

Challengers
5th - Kenseth
6th - Kurt Busch
7th - Jeff Gordon
8th - Edwards

Top ten
9th - Kyle Busch
10th - Dale Earnhardt Jr

Good showings - - Hamlin, B Labonte, Martin, Mears, Biffle, Riggs, Newman, Montoya, Truex Jr.