NASCAR Preview for Martinsville

Sunday October 21, 2007 - NASCAR visits Martinsville, the only track remaining from it's origins in 1948.
In 1996 the North Wilkesboro race track closed, leaving Martinsville as the last original track. That first race was won by Red Byron on July 4th, 1948. It is one of three short tracks, which combine for 6 of the 36 NEXTEL Cup races.

A couple of terms may become more clear this weekend.

(tril•o•gy) (tril´ə-je) a combination of three elements, such as three concurrent defects or symptoms.

Tri-fecta - A horse racing bet in which a player selects three horses in one race to finish 1st, 2nd and 3rd in exact order

I am taking you inside the race:

The trio of Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson and Tony Stewart have won 8 of the last 9 races here. Gordon has four victories, Johnson three and Stewart one. In three of the last four races they combined to lead 410 to 483 laps. Only once in the last nine races haven't they combined to lead over 200 laps and they led 91 that race. They accounted for 60% of the laps led and in the last four races they have combined for nine podium finishes.

Dale Earnhardt Jr is the only other driver to lead more than 125 laps in any of those nine races and he did it on three occasions. In the first race here in 2003 he led 195 laps compared to Gordon's 190, but Gordon won and Junior finished third. In the next race Gordon led 313 laps and Junior led the second most with 61, but he finished fourth to the trio of Gordon, Johnson and Stewart. In the following race in 2004 Gordon led 180 laps and Junior 154, with Junior finishing third, Johnson fourth, Gordon sixth and Stewart fourteenth.

In those three races Gordon led 683 laps and Junior the second most with 410.

Two races later Tony Stewart started a run of three straight races leading at least 50% of the laps. He led 818 laps (55%) and finished 26th, 2nd and 1st.

The trio finished 1-2-3 in 2005 and 2006, but Denny Hamlin put a kink in that finishing second in 2006 then third in the last race here. He led 125 laps in the last race and 28 the prior race.

More facts on race favorites:

Gordon - From 1995-2000 he had top five finishes in 10 of 12 races and currently he has finished top five in 7 of the last 9 races. The other four finishes were sixth, seventh, eighth and ninth. In 29 starts, he has 7 wins and 13 podium finishes and has completed all but six laps in the last 24 races here. Only two times has he finished more than three laps down. Has top five finishes in 8 of the last 12 short track races.

The last race he bumped and banged with Johnson, but couldn't pull off the win, so this weekend's Un-Finished Business Award (UFB), may go to Gordon. He won 4 of the 8 races prior to that, and led more than 150 laps in six of those. His 7.3 average is second to Johnson's 6.6. He is hot again this season, winning the last two races and finishing in the top five in 5 of the last 6 races.

Johnson - Three wins and six podium finishes in the last eight races here and the two other finishes were fourth and eighth. After finishing 35th in 2001, prior to his rookie year, he has finished in the top nine spots in all eleven races and has led between 113 to 245 laps in the last three races here.

Historically he finishes the year with a string of top three finishes, here is proof:
In 2003 he averaged 2.5 over the last 6 races, with 6 top three finishes. No wins.
In 2004 he averaged 2.0 over the last 6 races, with 5 top three finishes. 4 wins and a second.
In 2006 he averaged 3.0 over the last 6 races, with 5 top three finishes. 1 win and 4 second place finishes

Prior to Lowe's last weekend, where he had the best car, he had podium finishes in 5 of the last 8 season races.

Of the last six races on the schedule he has the best driver average at Lowe's, Martinsville and Phoenix, is second best at Atlanta and fourth at Texas. Homestead may be his only weakness.

Stewart - Two wins and top seven finishes in 10 of his last 15 races here. He has led 1193 laps in 17 starts, second to Gordon who has led 2296 in 29 starts. In 2005 at Richmond he led 143 laps, then in four of the next five short track races he led at least 245 laps. Since 2005, he has led 1502 laps at these tracks, second is Gordon with 815 and third is Johnson with 767

Denny Hamlin - Finished eighth in 2001, prior to his rookie year, in his first start. Also, has a second and third in four starts. He may be best suited for Flat tracks where he has all three of his Cup victories.

Earnhardt Jr - Has top fives in 7 of the last 11 races here. His only problem on Sunday may surface from a lack of time with his crew chief.

Kurt Busch - Historically he finishes better in years when he is hot. In 2002 he led 111 laps and won the race then in 2004 he led the most laps (120) and finished fifth. In eight races from 2001-05 he led at least 38 laps in five of those races. He is one of the best drivers week in and week out this season.

Kyle Busch - In 11 of the last 13 short track races he has finished ninth or better and he had a stretch in 2005-06 where 7 of 8 races were top five. He led ten laps and finished fourth in the last Martinsville race, but they are the only laps he has led. Also has a fifth and ninth in the last four starts here.

Clint Bowyer - Just good everywhere right now. Four podium finishes in the last eight races this season, he was battling for the lead at Richmond, but spun out and rebounded to finish 12th. He has finished 12th or better in 7 of the last 8 races this season. Finished 11th in the last race here and has top twelve finishes in all five short track races this year.

Jamie McMurray - After finishing 39th in his first start, he has top nine finishes in 6 of 8 starts. His only top five was a runner-up finish to Johnson in 2004 and he led 43 laps.

Ryan Newman or Matt Kenseth - Neither are too spectacular here, but Newman has four top fives to Kenseth's one. Neither one has led more than 83 laps. So, I compared their stats at New Hampshire, another flat-track with the same paper clip layout. In 8 of the last 10 races there they have finished within three spots of each other, with Kenseth ahead in five of those. But, Newman has led 433 laps and Kenseth only 85. Newman and his Penske Teammate Kurt Busch are running near the front lately while Kenseth and his Roush teammates don't fare great at Martinsville. Newman has finished in front of Kenseth in seven of the last ten races here.

Race strategy
If Stewart is running good, I don't think Gordon or Johnson will challenge and risk losing points to him in the standings. But, Gordon and Johnson might provide fireworks themselves. The question may be which driver will show up Dr. Stewart or Mr. Hyde.
Other drivers that can pull off the win are Hamlin, who has nothing to lose and runs great here, Earnhardt Jr who will be racing very hard to extend his yearly winning streak and Kurt Busch who has been a top three driver everywhere lately.
This is a track where Champions race well at, especially the King Richard Petty who had 15 wins. Gordon has seven here, all in a span of 19 races.

Ones to watch
1st - Stewart
2nd - Gordon
3rd - Johnson
4th - Hamlin

Challengers
5th - Earnhardt Jr
6th - Kurt Busch
7th - Kyle Busch
8th - Bowyer

Best of the rest:
9th - McMurray
10th - Newman

Answer to the last Trivia question? To get my first Grand National car in 1959, I waited until the bank closed on Friday and wrote a check for $2,000. Knowing the check was no good, I had to win the two races that weekend and I did with some relief help, Who am I? NED JARRETT

This weeks trivia:
Clint Bowyer can become the fifth driver to win the Championship with only one win. Ned Jarrett was the second driver to do this, in 1961. Who are the other three?