NATO Could Prove Irrelevance in Afghanistan

In a new article for the Center for Defense Information, Mark Burgess wrote that the current NATO fight in Afghanistan, the defense alliance's first war, could be its last.

While Mr. Burgess rightly notes that the arguments against NATO's relevance may be exaggerated, he cites several factors that are actively undermining the alliance's reason for existing. Originally designed as a counter to the Soviet threat during the Cold War, NATO has attempted to redefine itself by leading the International Security Assistance Force in Afghanistan, an effort that is stressing the alliance almost to the breaking point.

Problems listed by Mr. Burgess include:

* The conduct of counterinsurgency operations. NATO was designed as a conventional force, with conventional doctrine, to combat the Soviet Union in the event that the Cold War turned hot. NATO member countries participating in the fighting in Afghanistan have had great difficulty adapting to the counterinsurgency threat posed by the Taliban and remnants of al-Qaeda.

* Lack of a common strategy. Several of the NATO countries in Afghanistan are following their own command structures and their own strategies. Much of the effort is uncoordinated with other participant nations or with the Afghan government. The lack of unity of effort hinders overall progress against insurgent elements.

* National caveats. National caveats are restrictions on troops that are put in place by their national government. They can include where certain troops are allowed to go, what missions they are allowed to undertake, and what their particular rules of engagement are. For example, German soldiers are not allowed to conduct combat operations, limited instead to reconstruction work as dictated by the German government. The result is that a handful of NATO countries are doing the actual fighting, leading to tensions and resentment within the alliance.

* Post-war chaos. Mr. Burgess says that the United States, while successful in quickly deposing the Taliban government in Afghanistan, neglected the stability and security phase immediately following the end of the initial fighting. That resulted in NATO inheriting a chaotic situation in which the Taliban was able to reorganize and threaten the Karzai government.

* Pakistan. Pakistan has done the bare minimum to satisfy U.S. requirements in the global war on terrorism. The result has been a safe haven for the Taliban and remnants of al-Qaeda in the Afghan-Pakistan border area where militants freely cross from Pakistan into Afghanistan to attack NATO and Afghani forces. NATO has not yet found an adequate solution for addressing the threat emanating from Pakistan.

The author notes several other factors that could contribute to NATO's demise, including the recent conflict between Georgia and Russia and NATO consideration of Georgia and Ukraine for Membership Action Plans that could lead to full membership in the defense alliance. While current tensions with Russia over ballistic missile defense, the Georgia conflict, and NATO expansion into traditional Russian spheres of influence could profoundly impact NATO, it's performance in actual combat in Afghanistan could be the driving factor in whether or not NATO remains relevant in the post-Cold War world.