NBA Basketball Previews: Southwest Division

2005-2006 Results:
1. San Antonio
2. Dallas
3. Memphis
4. New Orleans/Oklahoma City
5. Houston

2006-2007 Projected Results:
1. Dallas
2. San Antonio
3. Houston
4. New Orleans/Oklahoma City
5. Memphis

Dallas: The starting five and Stackhouse are coming back to make another run at the Finals. There's no problem in these six, except for maybe Diop, but it's the bench that's the real wild card for the Mavs. It will be interesting how they can fill the gaps that the starting five cannot fill (though they are few in number!). Also, last season Dirk hit career numbers in field-goal, free-throw, and three-point percentage, but saw every other category fall. This shows me that Dirk is focusing on scoring more than anything else, and why not? How exactly do you stop a seven-foot monster tossing bombs from the three-point line? The league still can't stop Dirk, but his teammates need to compensate for his lower rebounds, blocks, and assists and make it easier for Dirk to get the ball.

Who has to step up: Dirk, Howard, Terry, and Harris have already proven they're going to be the nucleus of the Mavs, but they need consistent help from the bench and in the key. DeSagana Diop needs to contribute more besides his two blocks and two points a game he averaged last year. This dude is seven feet tall, someone seriously needs to teach him to grab more than four and a half rebounds a game. Personally, since the Mavs' bench is so deep with Croshere, Stackhouse, Anthony Johnson, and self-proclaimed, "second-best-center-in-the-league," Eric Dampier, I think they should trade one of their reserves to get someone who is more of an offensive threat to fill the center position. Speaking of the bench, only Stackhouse and Dampier are the only returning subs that Johnson would be using this year, while everyone else is new. It'll be interesting to see how the new role-players can affect Dallas' chances of finally winning that elusive NBA Championship (for better or worse).

San Antonio: The most boring team to watch, but they sure know how to win. Last year we saw a power shift as Duncan's injuries got the best of him and saw his point, rebounds, blocks, and field-goal percentage drop to career-worsts, while Parker scored 18.9 a game and led the league in points in the paint. I think they'll place second after Dallas only because Dallas has Dirk, who can carry his team single-handedly, the way Duncan used to.

Who has to step up: It seems that the most exciting player on the team is hurting the Spurs more than helping them. Of course, I'm talking about Manu, the craziest clutch player in the land of all that is clutch…but he only appears in the playoffs. In the season, it seems the long schedule gets to Ginobili and his health and concentration wavers. More and more, the Spurs know they cannot rely on Ginobili and Duncan, which is why Tony Parker needs to put up the same production as last year. However, he needs help, and I have no idea where he's going to get it. Fransisco Elson? Bruce Bowen? Maybe Michael Finley, who's stats have been decreasing over the past couple of years? We'll see, but if the Spurs can't stay healthy and the bench can't step up, we might be witnessing the end of the San Antonio reign over the Western Conference.

Houston: One of the teams that struggled last year due to injuries. Hopefully this season T-Mac and Yao are ready to play with each other more than half the season together. Unfortunately, the injuries of last year still linger and make both All-Stars more prone to another injury. However, if they continue to stay healthy, then the Rockets will no doubt make the playoffs. Last year with McGrady and Yao playing together, the Rockets went 21-10. If they can be this effective this year, Houston will surely pull together a 50 win season. In the draft, the Rockets showed the fans that they're going for power rather than potential, when they gave up both Swift and rookie, Rudy Gay for Shane Battier.

Who has to step up: Personally, I'm still unsure if the Gay for Battier was a good trade for the Rockets. I also think a lot of Rocket fans feel the same way, so it's up to Battier to prove us all wrong. He's in a completely different scenario now, being on a team who runs their offense through two main guys, instead of five or six players like the Grizzlies do. Offensively, Battier needs to assume the role of a solid outside shooter, though he is already defensively set. Another thing about Battier that makes him valuable for the Rockets is that he's healthy, playing 81 games last season. For the Rockets to be a successful team, I also believe that Luther Head and Alston need to develop a consistent outside shooting touch. Last year, Head was 36% behind the arc, and Alston was 32%, neither a considerable threat. This would create easier shots for Yao and McGrady, though when's the last time they shied away from a double-team? I would love to see them going to the conference finals, but it really depends on injuries and roster chemistry.

New Orleans: The Hornets had arguably the best off-season of the entire league. They were able to snag Peja and Tyson Chandler, both players who I think needed a new start in their struggling careers. Now that Peja gets to play with a point guard who can really create open shots for his teammates, expect his point averages to skyrocket, after having three sub-par seasons. However, the Hornets did lose J.R. Smith, P.J. Brown, and Speedy Claxton, who made up 29 points of the offensive production last year. For a team who came in 25th in team scoring, this might be a problem I am unsure the combined efforts of David West, Peja, Paul, and Chandler can handle.

Who has to step up: Tyson, dude, I think you have a lot of potential, but it wasn't working out for you on the Bulls. This guy needs to stay aggressive on the boards and give Paul another option to dish to. If he's in better shape than he was in last year, there is playoff potential for New Orleans. He needs to contribute more than 5.3 points and 9 rebounds a game, and more than fill the gap of P.J. Brown's silhouette. Chandler and Peja need to come onto the Hornets, acknowledging that this is Chris Paul's team. In turn, Paul must do everything he did last year, but with more confidence and court-sense, since the league now knows what he can do with the ball, and will make it that much harder for him to be productive.

Memphis: The season hasn't even started, and Memphis is already in a world of hurt with Pau Gasol out for a couple months with a broken foot. Once again, injuries in the Western Conference can keep teams out of playoff contention, and I'm not too sure Memphis can be effective with their go-to guy out, and either Stromile or Hakim Warrick filling the Spaniard's shoes. However, the Grizzlies play some of the best team ball in the league, and might be able to avoid a complete fallout if everyone contributes.

Who has to step up: Last season, I couldn't imagine why Mike Miller continued to come off the bench. Maybe he's more effective that way, but I think he deserves to start. With Pau out and Battier gone, Miller needs to bring hustle and solid outside shooting to the court. Also, with Stromile coming back, I'm excited to see how well he'll mesh with his former team. After a disappointing and overall ineffective season with the Rockets, Stromile needs to prove to the league that he hasn't lost his touch. However, we know that he can play defense, but we need to see more of a offensive mindset from him. This would draw help, leaving open shots for Miller, Cardinal, Eddie Jones, and Stoudamire...whoa! Can you say perimeter threat? If Stromile does draw enough defense, he'll get to choose between four sharpshooters, who combined, made 38% of their attempted threes last season. Finally, with Jerry West hooking Rudy Gay, probably as a backup for the fragile Damon Stoudamire, Gay will need to prove himself as a dominant rookie. I believe he's in high contention for the rookie of the year, and has a great opportunity to help an already disadvantaged team.