NBA Finals Preview: LA Lakers Versus Orlando Magic

How did the Orlando Magic make it to the NBA Finals? Almost no one predicted they would be competing against the much-lauded LA Lakers in the 2009 championship series. We knew that Kobe Bryant and Paul Gasol would likely dominate the Western Conference, and the easy prediction was a Lakers versus Cleveland Cavaliers showdown, with Kobe versus LeBron James.

The Magic Roster

Well, that matchup will have to wait until next season, because Magic coach Stan Van Gundy played the Cavs' roster like a marionette handler. Specifically, forwards Rashard Lewis and Hedo Turkoglu were simply too tall and athletic for the Cavs -- except, of course, for LeBron James, who had a monster series despite the lackluster performance of his teammates. Lewis and Turkoglu, both 6'10'', will probably also hold the key to the Magic's 2009 Finals performance.

In a press conference following the Cavs' game 6 loss in the Eastern Conference Finals, guard Mo Williams said, "It seemed like they shot 100% from three for the whole series. " Laker coach Phil Jackson's duty will be to make sure that does not happen again. But how will they do it?

Although Lewis, Turkoglu, and center Dwight Howard were the stories of the Easter Conference Finals, just as important was 6'6'' guard-forward Mickael Pietrus, whose perimeter defense shut down the Cavs' shooters. It's a role that Pietrus will return to as he chases Kobe Bryant in the Finals. With defense that frustrates Kobe into taking bad shots instead of facilitating the Laker offense through passing, this Finals matchup will be competitive. Also essential to the Magic's surge has been hyper-athletic 6'5'' rookie Courtney Lee.

It's an old dictum: defense wins championships. This statement would seem contradictory with the three-pointer hoisting Magic, but ask Wally Szczerbiak, Daniel Gibson and Mo Williams (the Cavs' perimeter shooters) about the Magic defense. All seemed invisible against the Magic.

The Laker Roster

After losing to the Lakers in the Western Conference Finals, Denver Nugget coach George Karl said, "They had the better closer." He was referring, of course, to Kobe Bryant. However, Kobe is not as difficult an assignment as LeBron James. The Lakers won their conference with their superior roster of players. They'll need Pau Gasol, Lamar Odom, Trevor Ariza and Luke Walton to play well defensively in order to match up with the Nuggets.

The emergence of Ariza has been the most amazing story for the Lakers. The fourth-year player made two huge steals at the end of Laker wins over the Nuggets, and he shot 50% from three-point range. Lamar Odom did not have a good series but came on strong late, especially with his rebounding. Luke Walton seems to have been underperforming all season long, but he knows his role as passer, rebounder and defender.

Magic/Lakers Matchups

Laker Guards:
Kobe Bryant
Derek Fisher
Shannon Brown
Jordan Farmar

Magic Guards:
Rafer Alston
Courtney Lee
Anthony Johnson

The verdict: Advantage Lakers -- because of Bryant, of course. Shannon Brown, surprisingly, has been playing the better than Fisher and Farmar. The Magic have a real weakness in their guard corps, and Stan Van Gundy has simply given ball-handling duties to Turkoglu instead. Mickael Pietrus and Courtney Lee will likely guard Kobe Bryant.

Laker Forwards:
Trevor Ariza
Luke Walton
Lamar Odom

Magic Forwards:
Rashard Lewis
Hedo Turkoglu

Mickael Pietrus

The verdict: Advantage Magic. Lewis and Turkoglu have never been playing better, but Lamar Odom's size and quickness could neutralize one of them. That leaves Luke Walton, who will have his minutes increased as he guards Lewis or Turkoglu. The wispy Ariza will find himself undersized for the Magic wingmen.

Laker Centers:
Andrew Bynum
Pau Gasol

Magic Centers:
Dwight Howard
Marcin Gortat

The verdict: Wash. Dwight Howard is simply a beast on the low block, and look for him to attack Pau Gasol when they are matched up. Bynum may end up with higher minutes in order to defend Howard.

The twin perimeter players for the Magic, Lewis and Turkoglu, will certainly be much better defended than in the series against the Cavs. The "twins" for the Lakers will be interior players Gasol and Bynum. Dwight Howard cannot guard both of them, of course, leaving Marcin Gortat or the aging Tony Battie to defend. This will be a real weakness for the Magic.

Overall Matchup Assessment:
The Lakers have the better roster, but have players who have been unreliable, namely Fisher, Odom and foul-plagued Bynum. The Lakers have also appeared to take games off against the Rockets as well as the Nuggets. The series could very well be decided by whether Luke Walton and Trevor Ariza can successfully defend Rashard Lewis or Hedo Turkoglu, because Odom should be able to match with one or the other.

The Magic will need a lot of hustle out of Courtney Lee and Mickael Pietrus in order to defend Kobe Bryant, but neither can actually guard him (although no NBA player can really guard Kobe one-on-one). In fact, Kobe could have a field day against these two Magic defenders.

An interesting undercurrent is whether the point guard position will be as inessential as it was for both the Lakers and the Magic as in both conference final series. Rafer Alston and Derek Fisher may end up being on the court but essentially watching as this series will be decided by the shooting guard, small forward, and power forward positions.

We'll be seeing a lot more of what got these teams to this point. Phil Jackson will likely try to use Kobe and Gasol to the Lakers' advantage. Stan Van Gundy will likely give the ball to Turkoglu and play an inside/outside game with Howard and Lewis.

Prediction:
Lakers in seven games. Let's hope for a hard-fought, long series!